China’s constant expansion in the world is increasing. Within a 20-year period Beijing has managed to strengthen its economic positions significantly in virtually all parts of the world, and, in some regions, to get closer to take the next step: political and cultural expansion. However, for several reasons expansion is not successful and effective everywhere. Despite this tendency, the PRC will try to increase its influence by using an extensive development model.
China’s expansion strategy is more successful in the states meeting the following criteria, fully or partially:
– low level of democratic institutions development. In this case it is much easier to corrupt the elites, make shady deals, plan and implement expansion strategies in the long term, and defend China’s national interests abroad more effectively;
– at a given moment the state-object of influence is far from attention of the key geopolitical players. In fact, China subjugates the state formations whose regimes have focused on other centers of global influence. We mean here the states that were in sight of the United States, EU and Russia, and disappeared for some reason;
– the expansion state-object has not had previous close cultural and political relations with China, or these relations were irregular and localized. As a rule, the PRC has a positive image in the states with which China has never had traditional relations. That is why China is perceived friendlier by the population or elites in the countries of Africa, Latin America or Central-Eastern Europe, and less friendly in the countries of Central and Southeast Asia.
Thus, Sub-Saharan Africa tops in China’s worldwide expansion strategy. This very region will be a priority in Beijing’s expansion context. China’s global plans to strengthen its positions in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Central Eastern Europe; and, to a lesser extent, Latin America may be challenged. The main reasons for these prospects will be the following factors:
– intensification of the struggle for natural and human resources will make the countries and regions compete more severe. In its turn, the United States, EU, Russia, India, Japan, and Turkey will cross China’s political expansion plans in states and regions more actively. The US-China conflict intensification of itself will intensify this confrontation. The elite changing and cooperation strengthening with other centers of geopolitical influence may happen in the regions with China’s significant influence;
– emergence of new regional leader states that will strengthen regional competition by blocking the PRC’s initiatives in the region. First of all, we can talk about Vietnam, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland;
– changes in China itself. The etatization course in the PRC’s policy may force private companies that currently solve the most global tasks for Beijing to reconsider their strategy.
At the same time, the factors that the Chinese expansion benefits are the following:
– as of now no country in the world can globally resist China’s economic expansion into the external space using the same methods;
– China has made great progress in its cultural expansion and in the process of local elites formation. This policy will bear fruit this very decade – Beijing will get educated pro-Chinese elite formed from local residents in many countries, primarily, on the African continent;
– the policy of local authoritarian elites corrupted is a more effective method to increase the influence of external forces than changing the geopolitical course with the help of a series of democratic procedures;
– China has a firm and long-term global plan to expand in the world. At the same time, none of the geopolitical actors has a similar long-term plan and acts in accordance with the tactical challenges posing by the PRC.
Due to its economic intentions and limited resource potential the PRC cannot change its approach and begin intensive development. These attempts will be made in those areas where it is possible. However, an extensive development path will still prevail and shape China’s geopolitical strategy.
Thus, more and more states trying to restrict China’s influence by all possible methods will be forced into a conflict with Beijing. This can lead to regional conflicts, the emergence of destabilization areas and break in economic relations that have been built for the past 20 years.
