Conflict Archives - Robert Lansing Institute

Russia’s Setback in Mali: Intelligence Failures, Strategic Limits, and the Future of Moscow’s Africa Project

Russia’s recent military and political setbacks in Mali represent more than a tactical defeat in the Sahel. The withdrawal of the Russian-controlled Africa Corps from key northern positions such as Kidal…

May 11, 2026Mali, Russia

Conflict Economy Energy Geoeconomics Geopolitics

The Russian Factor in the Middle East War:Economic Parasitism and the Kremlin’s Destabilization Strategy

The war in the Middle East around Iran has become not only a regional conflict but also an instrument of global economic and geopolitical competition. The primary beneficiary of this instability…

April 30, 2026China, Iran, Russia, USA

Conflict Nonproliferation

Deterrence in Transition: Russia Confronts the Prospect of a European Nuclear Pillar”

Gennady Gatilov, Russia’s permanent representative to the United Nations in Geneva, stated that Moscow has prepared “adequate response measures” in the event that France increases the scale of its nuclear arsenal or…

April 29, 2026France, NATO, Russia

Conflict Geopolitics Warfare

Testing NATO’s Edge: Russian Hybrid Threats and Societal Resistance in the Baltics

The Security Council of the Russian Federation, in an official statement, accused Lithuania of creating a center of tension near the borders of the Kaliningrad Oblast. In particular, Lithuanian authorities are criticized for allegedly ignoring…

April 24, 2026Lithuania, Russia

Conflict Energy Geoeconomics Intelligence ops

Explosives Near Pipeline in Serbia — Actors, Motives, and Political Implications

Executive Summary The discovery of explosives near a major gas pipeline in northern Serbia—part of the TurkStream/Balkan Stream system supplying Russian gas to Hungary—is a highly politicized and strategically sensitive incident. While…

April 6, 2026GRU, Hungary, Serbia, Ukraine

Conflict Democracy

Slovakia Moves to Close Legal Gaps as Russian Drone Strikes Near Its Border Raise Alarm”

Following an attack by a Russian Shahed-type drone on an electrical substation in the city of Perechyn (Zakarpattia region, approximately 10 km from the Ukrainian–Slovak border), Slovak President Peter Pellegrini initiated the introduction of…

April 3, 2026NATO, Slovakia

Conflict Economy Energy Warfare

Behind Iran’s Strikes: Russia’s Covert Role in Targeting the Gulf”

Russia’s partnership with Iran has evolved from opportunistic cooperation into a systemic military–technological alliance that directly shapes the balance of power in the Middle East. While Tehran executes kinetic operations, Moscow increasingly…

March 27, 2026Iran, oil, Russia

Conflict Estimates Warfare

Renewed threats to Kosovo and stability in the Western Balkans

Serbia`s rapid military modernization, strategic planning, and hybrid operations are emerging as the central security threat to Kosovo and regional stability in the Western Balkans. Between increased defense spending, the…

March 16, 2026Kosovo, Serbia

Conflict Geopolitics Warfare

U.S.–Israel Ground Operation Using Kurdish Forces: Probability, Effectiveness, Aims, and Consequences (March 2026)

A large-scale U.S.–Israel ground invasion of Iran is unlikely in the near term. What is plausible—and already being signaled in open reporting—is a limited “ground-enabled” campaign: air/missile strikes combined with Kurdish (and potentially other peripheral) armed groups opening…

March 5, 2026Iran, Kurdistan, USA

Conflict Economy Governance Warfare

War in Iran: Power Transition, Regime Stability, Regional Consequences, and the Oil Shock

Iran is fighting on two fronts at once: an external war (U.S.–Israel strikes and ensuing Iranian retaliation) and an internal succession crisis triggered by the killing of Supreme Leader Ali…

March 2, 2026Iran, Russia, USA

Conflict