After months of political turmoil, voters in Ivory Coast choosed legislators in elections on Saturday, March 6th. The poll is seen as a test for the nation’s stability after the presidential election in October was marred by violence as incumbent President Alassane Ouattara’s opponents disputed his bid for a third term.
The results that are available, however, show the ruling party in good stead: some 20 ministers and allies of President Alassane Ouattara were elected in their respective constituencies.
The next day after the voting, however, when the results from the first two constituencies out of 204 were announced, the opposition party Democratic Party of Cote d’Ivoire (PDCI) of former president Henri Konan Bédié declared itself the winner.
Thus, there are fears of a rise in tension between the two major political parties.
Two ex-presidents and former antagonists have teamed up to urge people to vote against the ruling RHDP in Côte d’Ivoire’s legislative elections. This vote is a test of public support for President Alassane Ouattara who was controversially re-elected for a third term in office four months ago with 94.27% of the vote.
The Ivorian opposition has changed its strategy since last year’s presidential election when it called for a boycott, after declaring Ouattara’s decision to run for a third term a violation of the Ivorian constitution. Now, it has decided to take part in the vote to elect members of the National Assembly currently dominated by the ruling party.
The former president Laurent Gbagbo, who lives in exile in Belgium, has played a central part in the election run-up, having formed an alliance with the country’s main opposition leader Henri Konan Bédié, who left Ouattara’s ruling coalition in 2018.
On March 1st, Assoa Adou, secretary-general of the Front populaire ivoirien [Ivorian Popular Front],announced that Laurent Gbagbo would return to Côte d’Ivoire in mid-March, after receiving two passports in Brussels – one diplomatic and one ordinary – in early December 2020.
However, it is highly likely that such statement made additional pressure on the Ivorian authorities and mobilized Gbagbo’s supporters. We can’t deny the possibility of his return to the country if the situation in Cote D’Ivoire radicalizes. This could be in case if Ouattara declares his victory and opposition parties save their unity after this.
The activist Steve Beko returned to Abidjan on February 7 to prepare for the arrival of Stéphane Kipré, the son-in-law of the former president who has been in exile in Europe since April 2011. Exiled in Ghana, Justin Koné Katinan, Gbagbo’s spokesman, and Damana Pickass, one of the vice-presidents of the FPI, stated to return just after the parliamentary elections.
Ouattara is not yet ready for Laurent Gbagbo’s return. Incumbent President no longer fears his return. However, in his eyes, it can not take place until the proceedings before the International Criminal Court (ICC) have ended.
The question of Gbagbo’s judicial situation in Côte d’Ivoire could arise if he returns to Côte d’Ivoire.Sentenced in 2018, in Côte d’Ivoire, to 20 years in prison in the case known as the BCEAO case – a sentence he contests – he was also charged with “genocide, crimes against civilians and murder.”
So, his return and further prosecution may be used for rising tensions and provoking inter-tribal stand-off.
Ouattara has been under domestic political pressure since his last year’s decision to run for a third term in office. The decision was strongly criticised by the opposition and led to deadly street clashes between supporters of the rival candidates. Ouattara and his supporters view the country’s new constitution – approved in 2016 following his re-election – as giving him the legal right to run for president again. The opposition maintains that a two-term limit still stands. De-jure, Ouattara correctly interpreted opportunities the constitutional changes gave him. However, such mechanism is widely used by authoritarian leaders to prolongate their presidential terms.
Ouattara’s voters seem to accept his reasons for standing for a third term, or they don’t find the question of the presidential mandate to be that important. He also has widespread support because he has been able to provide stability for the last ten years and turn the economy around, with Côte d’Ivoire being among the top five fastest-growing economies worldwide since 2012.
The post-election scenario is encouraging. If comparing this legislative election with the last presidential election it seems that democracy in Côte d’Ivoire appears relatively strong. Last year people’s frustration passed pretty quickly, and they seemed to accept the result. Most actors and voters accept that political contests should be decided through the democratic system, not in the streets or on the battlefields. The fact that the opposition participated in the legislative elections added to the Ouattara government’s legitimacy as well.
In case the opposition wins the election, President Ouattara has no logical reasons to seriously challenge the results. Cote D’Ivoire is the presidential republic, so according to this scenario Ouattara does not risk his power or credentials.
Today the international community is loyal to him and with steps to radicalize the situation, the Ivorian President risks losing such support.
So, considering that Côte d’Ivoire came out of armed conflict quite recently, this is the cause for concern. It raises questions about the direction Ouattara will choose for the Ivorian democracy in the coming one and a half years or so.
If Ouattara wins, the opposition is most likely to make an attempt to use a street to challenge the results. Ouattara controls the majority of Côte d’Ivoire’s military forces and could use armed force to back his victory. However, this will lead to violence, deterioration of developments and democracy defeat in the state.
Read also: Post electoral scenarios in Côte d’Ivoire
On March 8th, two days after the election, President Alassane Ouattara named his close confidant and chief of staff Patrick Achi as interim prime minister in place of Hamed Bakayoko, who is absent due to health reasons. So, it could be a sign of enhancing power before the vote results are announced officially. And such step could indicate Ouattara is gearing up for a response to opposition victory and turmoil in this country.
