Protests in Cuba can result in foreign involvement as an attempt to support the communist regime on the island. Venezuela and Russia are the countries that can provide paramilitary forces to suppress popular discontent in Cuba.
Thousands of Cubans have joined the anti-communist government protests that have become the biggest for decades.
They marched across Cuba, including the capital Havana, and shouted ‘Down with the dictatorship!’ In response, the police fired tear gas and beat some of the demonstrators. There is information about dead in the clashes with riot police and missing.
The anti-government protests started with demonstrations in the city of San Antonio de los Banos, southwest of Havana, however, they spread across the country pretty soon.
One of the reasons for the protesters’ outrage is the collapse of the Cuban economy that due to the Covid-19 pandemic shrank by 11% and became the worst recession for nearly 30 years. Locals criticize the government for food, medicines and vaccines shortage, rotating outages, refusal to purchase foreign medicines – all these factors have led to increasing the coronavirus infected cases.
In addition, demonstrators protest against civil liberties restrictions and the authorities’ failure to handle the coronavirus effectively. They demand to accelerate Covid-19 vaccination program. Havana, who exaggerates the effectiveness of its health system, has previously refused to purchase foreign vaccines, including Chinese and Russian, and to join the COVAX program as well. At present, Cuba has two own vaccines, Abdala and Soberana. As of July 8, 15.3% of the Cubans (1.73 million) were fully vaccinated; 26.7% of population (3.024 million) got one shot. The Ministry of Health set the goal to have 70% of the population (11 million) vaccinated by August. However, upon detecting the Delta strain on the island, the case rate has increased sharply and reached more than 7,000 people a day after Havana reopen direct flights with Russia. Cuban vaccines cannot stop the pandemic due to low vaccination rate and questionable efficiency. By analogy with the Russian vaccine, Havana started vaccinating even before completion of the third phase of trials. Protesters said countless patients have died at home without treatment because hospitals have been overwhelmed.
Cuba has used Decree-Law 370/2018, which came into effect in July 2019 and severely limits free speech, to detain, fine, and harass critics. The government continues to employ arbitrary detention to harass and intimidate critics, independent activists, political opponents , and others.
Cubans who criticize the government continue to risk criminal prosecution. They do not benefit from due process guarantees, such as the right to fair and public hearings by a competent and impartial tribunal. In practice, courts are subordinate to the executive and legislative branches.
In response to the protests, the government got out thousands of pro-government supporters following President Miguel Diaz-Canel’s TV call on them to defend the Revolution. In such a manner he aggravates a split by channeling protesters who threaten his regime. In the context of limited economic resources all these actions will eventually expand the protest movement.
Nevertheless, the Cuban authorities can handle the protests; so far the protesters are not yet ready for taking tougher actions. Havana’s resources to intensify its fight against protesters by engaging paramilitary formations from Venezuela and Russia minimize the chances for the island regime to fall.
However, we see here a serious challenge for Diaz-Canel. The protests indicate that the Castro era actually ended not with the transfer of power to Diaz-Canel but with the first mass protests whose participants directly demanded to change the system and a new leadership.
The country is experiencing a deep power ideology crisis undermining fundamentals of the state.
As some reports say, Raul Castro, 89, flew to Caracas where he might seek the Maduro regime support. This is an important signal, since Cuba was responsible for suppressing the protests in Venezuela and still provides the counterintelligence regime there. However, the probable address to Maduro for help indicates that Cuba is losing its power.Economic pressure is the only tool to fight against the communist regime that violates the rights of its people.
