Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ)s’ visit to Turkey after ten years indicates the de-escalation of tensions between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Turkey and a response to the new developments in the region.Although it is being called a new era and increasing peace in the region, neighboring countries may evaluate it against their interests. certainly, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar will carefully consider the outputs of the travel during the next few months.
Abu Dhabi Crown Prince MBZ and the de facto ruler of UAE traveled to Turkey on November 24. During the travel, ten agreements in the fields of energy, environment, finance, and trade were signed between the two countries. This is MBZ’s first visit to Ankara in ten years since February 2012. Relations between the two countries had been weakened by Turkey’s support for anti-government protesters after the Arab spring. It worsened after the 2013 anti-Brotherhood coup in Egypt and the ouster of President Mohammed Morsi.
Three years later, the Conditions were prepared for improving relations and both countries decided to strengthen their relations in 2016. On April 25, 2016, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu traveled to the UAE and the relations were restored, but it was short-lived. Turkey claims that the UAE has supported the failed July 15, 2016 coup with three billion dollars in aid.
Finally, with the Al-Ula agreement and the lifting of the blockade of Qatar on January 5, 2021, the Relations between the UAE and Turkey improved again.
Moving Towards A New Era
With the inauguration of US President Joe Biden, the situation changed and countries in the region were obliged to ignore their regional blocs and redefine their interests. The first step was to resolve the differences between the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Qatar, which eventually lifted the blockade on Doha by four countries including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt.
following this, Saudi Arabia improved its relations with Turkey. Egypt put aside its differences with Doha over its support for the Muslim Brotherhood and improved its relations with Qatar. Turkey also understood the external realities and despite the differences with Cairo in Libya, Syria and the support for the Muslim Brotherhood, it turned to de-escalation tensions with Egypt.
Considering these dynamics, the UAE seeks to promote its “new face” as a conciliatory and constructive player. Abu Dhabi understands the post-Trump situation and to cut its losses, avoid isolation and secure a place for itself in the new regional game, Abu Dhabi is recalibrating its position vis-a-vis Turkey and Qatar and promoting itself as a constructive player.
Turkey also benefits from the de-escalation of tensions with the UAE. The fact is that following the disputes between Turkey and Trump and the tariffs imposed by him on some Turkish goods in 2018 and the financial and economic ideas of the Turkish President, the value of the Turkish Lira has plunged to its lowest level. It has hit a record low of 12.49 against the US dollar after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan defended recent sharp rate cuts. Overall, the lira has lost nearly 40 percent of its value against the dollar since the start of 2021.
Due to the high inflation rate (20 percent) driven by the free-falling Lira, Erdogan is seeking to restore his domestic credibility. The strong economy of the UAE is the best tool for Turkey to get out of its dire economic situation. During MBZ’s recent visit to Turkey, The UAE announced a US ten billion dollars fund to support mainly strategic investments in Turkey, including in the health and energy fields.
The trade between two countries and the UAE investments in Turkey in the current critical situation is the best means to promote and maintain the economic and political relations between the two sides. That is why Erdogan announced that he intends to visit Abu Dhabi in February 2022.
Rising Tension
The Emirati official’s travel to Turkey has two sides of the same coin, and rising tensions are other side of the coin. Neighbors of the UAE may be unhappy with the travel and are closely pursuing the effect of it. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Iran are the neighbors of the UAE, which are considered to be Abu Dhabi’s rivals due to the current power struggle in the region.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been at odds since the OPEC Plus summit and the disagreement over quotas. They also have differences in Yemen. Saudi Arabia supports the Al-Islah party, which is a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood in Yemen, while the UAE considers it an enemy. The UAE is trying to put Saudi Arabia in trouble through Turkish influence in the Saudi-backed Al-Islah Party.
The UAE’s economic rivalry with Saudi Arabia is also one of the reasons for the UAE’s reducing of tensions with Turkey. The UAE is trying to use Turkish significant influence in Azerbaijan, Palestine, Central Asia, and the Balkans to expand its trade relations beyond the region and thereby advance the trade game to its advantage.
Iran may also not be happy with the close relations between the UAE and Turkey. Tehran is concerned about Israeli activities in the region. The UAE has been in official relations with Israel since December 2020. Israel and Iran are currently engaged in cyberwar and sabotage against each other.
On October 26, a cyberattack was carried out on Iranian gas stations, disrupting the activities of 4,300 gas stations throughout Iran. Iran blamed Israel and the US for it. Iran fears that close cooperation between Turkey and the UAE, both of which have official ties to Israel, could lead to increased Tel Aviv espionage and intelligence activities near its borders. For Iran, these activities are the most important national threat that host countries may face severe retaliation from Iran.
Qatar is also concerned about the close relations between Turkey and the UAE. Even though Qatar is a wealthy nation, its economic might does not outshine that of the UAE. At the end of the day, the Qatari market is limited, megaprojects associated with the long-awaited FIFA World Cup in late 2022 are finishing, and its bilateral trade with Turkey is minimal despite the noticeable increase following the 2017-21 Gulf crisis. Unless Doha is willing to strongly counter the Emirati maneuvering with measures geared to exponentially increase bilateral trade and foreign direct investment in Turkey, there is little chance that what Qatar can financially offer can match what the UAE can provide. The Middle East is a turbulent region where its relations are evaluated with a Zero-Sum Game. Any action, although seemingly positive, can be considered to the detriment of the interests of other countries. Turkey and the UAE, with the help of transparency and respect for the interests of other countries, can establish close ties between themselves as an arena for further cooperation throughout the region.
