Mobilization in Russia to speed up the fall of regime and create extreme tension within the country

Partial mobilization announced in Russia means Putin has acknowledged the failure to complete the tasks of the military invasion of Ukraine.

Putin ordered a call-up of reservists in Russia, on September 21, urging defense industry to enhance productivity. Russia comes into global confrontation with the West and braces up for the next stage in the war against Ukraine.

All those comments and assessments on the Kremlin’s announcement refer to the same thing: the Kremlin regime is weak, as Moscow has practically admitted it is unable to wage modern war.

Putin has argued that it is not fighting Ukraine but fighting NATO that throws all its military capacity against Russia. That fits in with the concept of Russian dictator, on the one hand, and enables him to explain to his people why the Russian troops have been defeated and are ineffective, on the other. Then again, an attack on Europe is possible, as Russia has geopolitical interests there as well. Mobilization, therefore, signals to the West that Russian threat is permanent, and needs to be suspended and eradicated in Ukraine.

Putin, by his decision, acknowledged the lack of visible Russian success at the frontline and indicated he is ready for a long war.

The decision to mobilize is due to referendums planned in the occupied parts of Ukraine, as Russia wants to annex them further. With those referendums held and parts of Ukraine annexed by Russia, the Kremlin intends to portray further offensive by Ukrainian army in the Donbas as Ukraine’s aggression against Russia. In this case, Moscow is able to intensify nuclear blackmail, as Russian national security concept envisages for using nuclear weapons if Russia’s integrity is threatened.

The referendums should show Russian people that military campaign and Moscow’s territorial expansion were successful, like in Crimea. But even with occupied parts of Ukraine annexed, Putin’s popularity is unlikely to boost, amid the war.

Putin is unable and not ready to pull back from Ukraine, as he is afraid of the shame of defeat. He has been caught up in propaganda that sparked lots of nationalists, who believe Putin is the savior of Russia.Most of these people are close to social depth and view the strikes of state propaganda as something to be proud of. Losing the war popularized by the Kremlin propagandists, in this case, will particularly hit Putin’s popularity with those Russian national chauvinists. That is why, besides Putin’s own obsession, the state propaganda effect curtails his room for maneuver. That is why Putin cannot give up the idea of occupying Ukraine.

Partial mobilization in Russia indicates the Kremlin is unable to dramatically reverse the situation at the frontline in favor of Russia. The mobilization, announced as partial, is going to be total, therefore, with lack of motivation among the people. That will make those who supported the war under the influence of propaganda think differently, as they are not ready to sacrifice themselves or be uncomfortable. Aside of that, Russia is expected to suffer greater losses. Moscow is not able to provide so many troops with protective equipment or modern weapons. That means weak mobilization performance.

Most Russians are ready to pay lip service rather than fight. That is why mobilization will lead to growing disaffection with the authorities in Russia. As the president announced his decree, protests erupted in the cities, and they obviously tend to become more frequent. Mobilization in aggressive war is due to demotivate the Russians. The gap between the government and the people will widen, with internal tensions aggravating. Russia is likely to repeat the scenario of 1917, when losses and burden of the WWI triggered the fall of the monarchy.

Meanwhile, mobilization is not supposed to bring much change at the frontline. With most Russian military professionals already dead or captured, the mobilized troops will not be able to launch a successful offensive, as they do not understand modern war. That fact was proved when mobilized soldiers failed to keep the counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, as professional Russian troops were moved to the south of Ukraine.

Russia’s Security Council is skeptical about the prospects for mobilization. There are indications Putin was told the mobilization was unreasonable after mid-July. The papers warned the mobilization would be totally ineffective following that date. In early September, some assessments by the Russian Security Council already featured the risks of civil war and breakup of the country. Those assessments go in line with the words of Ben Hodges, a retired United States Army officer who served as commanding general, United States Army Europe, who said that the international community must prepare for the potential disintegration of Russia, to minimize geopolitical impact by this global process in future. The general believes the country consisting of more than 120 ethnic groups, might disintegrate gradually but also uncontrollablly.

The Security Council voiced fears of losing control over some areas of the Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh, and Rostov regions amid rising popular discontent with mobilization.

Some reports suggest most of security agencies dissuaded Putin from ordering mobilization, as they are afraid of protests, with weapons in hands of the people who have a grudge against the government.

The FSB leaders spoke against the decision to mobilize, especially as for increasing the number of PMCs. They worry that protests in Russia involving PMCs would be impossible to suppress.