A so called ‘new framework’ is a comprehensive agreement which ‘leaked’ through the Kosovo media a few weeks ago. The first draft of this agreement aiming to normalize relations between Kosovo and Serbia is quite debatable, recently, both in Kosovar and Serbian opinion. The proposal for this agreement was initiated by France and Germany with Macron and Scholz involved in the dialogue process. We are talking about a four-page document which currently presents a thirteen-point, long-term plan and is being considered as a possible plan to resolve the Kosovo-Serbia disagreements. Basically, this is the two Germanies-alike solution problem model – both parties are not obliged to recognize each other, though by signing this agreement, they would pledge to normalize the bilateral relations. Taking into account that this is only a framework, I think that it will test the two parties’ readiness for compromise.
The document is commented on in different ways in Kosovo and Serbia. Serbian President Aleksander Vucic has publicly admitted that he has seen this document offered to him by the EU Special Representative, Miroslav Lajcak. According to Vucic he did not accept the document, he just read it. The Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, referring to the “new framework”, said that preferred to leave no comments on the documents that have no author. On the other hand, Kosovo will benefit from recognition by the five EU member states that have not recognized it yet, it means that Kosovo will have the European Union integration prospect as well as membership in international organizations, including the UN membership in a long-term plan.
Among other things this document states that, if the parties agree to sign this agreement, Serbia will silently accept the reality of Kosovo as an independent state de facto, but will not recognize it de jure, it will benefit from large financial aid, but without specifying the sphere. Another issue related to the comprehensive agreement between Kosovo and Serbia is the visa liberalization. While an interpretation of the agreement has been ‘leaking’ in the media, purposefully I assume, to monitor public opinion and the two governments, there are also signals in favor of the liberalization of visas for Kosovo. It is known that the visa liberalization for Kosovo is closely related to the comprehensive agreement with Serbia, taking into account that in the past years, there have been many efforts to approximate positions between Kosovo and Serbia for an agreement, it was signaled that the visa liberalization for Kosovo is too, but with the withdrawal of the positions for agreement, the signals for visa liberalization also disappear.
Let’s remember that such a document supposedly to have been proposed by France and Germany, was “leaked” in the media last year, surely, with the same purpose, public opinion monitor. The German ambassador in Kosovo, Jorn Rohde, was the first who called the publicized document as a fake; his statement was followed by the French embassy in Kosovo that said the same. In another non-formal document published in the Bosnian and Croatian media, there was talk about changing the borders in the Balkans. According to the media, this document was drawn up by the Prime Minister of Slovenia, Janez Jansha. At that time, the President of Kosovo, Vjosa Osmani, described this as Serbia’s strategy with the aim of normalizing the border changes debate, and then the dialogue agenda.
However, the trend of non-paper diplomacy is known in the region and it cannot be said that it has not been successful. Recently, North Macedonia had a French draft proposal for resolving its dispute with Bulgaria, which it rejected in principle, but accepted the second version of the agreement which caused public protests, though the Macedonian government settled the dispute with Bulgaria. As a result, the doors were opened to Skopje for the official start of negotiations for membership in the European Union.
For the first time the solution of the Kosovo problem on the two Germanies model was mentioned in 2007 by the German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger, the representative of the European Union in the Troika negotiations for the future of Kosovo, which contributed into the declaration of the independence of Kosovo. It was then updated by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2019. Of course, these third-party offered solutions appear when the two parties cannot regulate their relations by themselves. Although it seems like a new momentum for solving the Kosovo-Serbia issue, according to the created narrative, does not look achievable because the model of two Germanies in the case of Kosovo and Serbia would not work for several reasons. Kosovo and Serbia are a different context from Germany. Germany has never had a war with each other and has never had enmity or a declaration of Kosovo-Serbia alike war, which resulted in many victims on Kosovo side. Therefore the application of the model of the two Germanies is not very adequate. Although some parts of the model are interesting, for example, not being hindered by international subjectivity or membership in international organizations. All these provisions should be included in a separate agreement between Kosovo and Serbia – where Serbia must give up its territorial claims that there is towards Kosovo. After this all other aspects will be easier to implement.
Before signing any agreement, the first thing a disciplined Serbia must do is to respect the preliminary agreements between the two countries; Kosovo and Serbia have both ideological differences, and national, cultural and language differences. The model of the two Germanies did not work even in Germany, as a result the unification of the two Germanies took place in 1990. In the Kosovo-Serbia case, the issue that one day these two countries would unite, should NOT be left as an alternative. It would mean to calculate another war between the two countries, after ten years.
