Madagascar presidential elections show democracy crisis

The presidential elections in Madagascar met non democratic norms and regularities and questioned the legitimacy of re-elected President Andry Rajoelina. It will increase political turbulence in the country and create the preconditions for the situation destabilizion as well. Madagascar’s election commission has announced the re-election of President Andry Rajoelina who was handed a second term by the election commission after securing 59.7% of the vote. Such a margin of victory would eliminate the need for a runoff election and give him a third term as leader of the Indian Ocean island of 28 million. However, the legitimacy of his new term is certain to be questioned as 60% of an 11-million-strong electorate failed to cast their ballot in the first-round vote. Previously, voting closed after the first round of Madagascar’s presidential election on November 16, which took place despite a boycott by most opposition candidates. The majority of the opposition, aligned in the so-called Collectif des 10  – a group of 10 candidates – boycotted the election. They complained of an “institutional coup” in favor of the incumbent. Despite their refusal to participate in the vote, their names remained on the ballot. They, called on voters to “consider that these elections do not exist” and refused to campaign. The election unfolded peacefully with a low-key security presence across the capital Antananarivo but turn-out was low. The second place went to Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko, who won 14% of the vote, while former President Marc Ravalomanana, who was one of several candidates who called for a boycott by voters, ranked the third (12%). The result still has to be endorsed by the country’s constitutional court. In case of the elections being confirmed, it makes Rajoelina free from facing a second-round election runoff and he can begin a third term. Rajoelina, 49, became Africa’s youngest head of state in 2009. He is a former DJ and mayor of the capital, Antananarivo. He was previously president of a provisional government from 2008 to 2014 following a military-backed coup. He won the presidency for a second time during elections in 2018. Former President Marc Ravalomanana, who was ousted by Rajoelina in 2009, was one of 10 opposition candidates who boycotted the election, saying that conditions for a legitimate and fair vote hadn’t been met. Supporters of President’s party claimed they were promised money in return for backing him. Madagascar’s opposition said they would not accept the results of as they claim, illegitimate election, replete with irregularities. The group has organized street protests in the capital Antananarivo almost every day in recent weeks, several of which were dispersed with tear gas and police arrested many participants and bystanders. The United Nations human rights office said that Malagasy security forces had used “unnecessary and disproportionate force” against peaceful protesters. A few months prior to the presidential elections, the Malagasy incumbent president received French citizenship. He was supposed to be automatically deprived of his Malagasy citizenship and the opportunity to run in the presidential elections. As he says, naturalization was supposed to allow his children to continue their studies in France and avoid the visa formalities. At the end of October 2023, the President of the Senate, Herimanana Razafimahefa, refused to act as interim President of the Malagasy Republic during the presidential campaign and announced his decision to give this opportunity to the Prime Minister of Malagasy. Prior, the Senate President twice announced about his readiness to take on his duties. We estimate that this decision was influenced by Andry Rajoelina, although on September 11 the president welcomed Razafimahefa’s refusal to take over as interim president. Obviously, in the future Antananarivo will show authoritarianism model. This challenge to the results of the presidential election in Madagascar will raise strong political and social tensions in the country. The next few days will be crucial to know how this situation will evolve and what measures will be taken to resolve this conflict. The attention of the international community should be focused on Madagascar, in order to guarantee a transparent and fair electoral process.