Russia to further encourage Iran-Israel conflict

Iran’s attack on Israel reveals a choreographed plan, involving Russia. The Kremlin has two simultaneous goals: first, it is an effort to eliminate the U.S. external support capacity by drawing them into confronting an enemy, with all conventional capabilities used, and Washington suffering significant military losses. Moscow knows the outcome of a simulation of a military conflict with Iran. In this regard,Russia believes U.S. losses will force the U.S. and Israel to use nuclear weapons, thus giving the Kremlin a free hand to use weapons of mass destruction to realize its objectives in Ukraine. This scenario is also likely to cease all military aid to Ukraine, which is a priority objective for the Kremlin.

Moscow provided Iran with coordinates of the targets, satellite data, and advised on how to overcome Israeli air defense systems. Russia provided Hamas with the same data during the attack on Israel in October 2023, which made the operation tactically successful. The Kremlin supports Iran through the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces (military intelligence) that advised Iranian proxies on the ground. It is strongly suspected that small groups of fighters from the Wagner Group are operating in the region, as military assistance mission, supervised by military intelligence since August 2023.

Russian leaders believe that Iran’s armed conflict will divert the West’s focus from the war in Ukraine.

Second, Moscow needs to give Tehran a political victory over Israel, which will add to Iran’s image among its proxies. That way Iran gains an opportunity to neutralize the U.S. stance in the Middle East, to become a key player in the region. The official statement by Tehran’s Chief of General Staff that the Operation True Promise is over, means, however, that Russia failed to achieve its objective and will likely go on with effort to roil the region. Neither Israel, nor Iran, nor the United States are interested in further escalation. What happens next is dependent on the Kremlin, which is likely to add fuel to the fire, at no great risk. We believe, therefore, Moscow is likely to launch a complex misinformation campaign on Iran, to keep the tension and persuade the Raisi regime to continue attacking Israel.

Russia has been pressing on Washington and Jerusalem since October 2023, as it provided Iran with technical and intelligence support for the operations against Israel, thus strengthening ties with Tehran.

The Kremlin’s participation in assisting Iran’s military planning is indirectly confirmed by the fact that Iran’s approach is identical to that of Russia in Ukraine: a strike by drones, first, to confuse and deplete air defenses, and then come ballistic missiles. That way, Iran helps Russia in Ukraine, and Russia helps Iran in Israel. Moscow is eventually benefiting both militarily and politically. As Israel’s air defense is equipped with Western technology, used by Kyiv, Iran, thanks to Russia, knows how to break through the air defense.

Some military experts believe the ongoing attacks on Israel enable Iran to evaluate the effectiveness of different strike forces, to find more effective way to evade and suppress Western air and naval defense.‘The U.S., their allies and partners are facing increasingly connected adversaries that help and gain knowledge from each other. Many U.S. enemies have been using the drones developed by Iran for a long time, and stronger ties will help the key players – Tehran, Russia, North Korea and China – to find more effective way to use these systems against the U.S. and their allies,’ the ISW believes.