Link between the person who made an attempt to kill Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico on May 15, and pro-Russian neo-Nazi group “Slovenski branci, SB” points at the real goal of this shooting: an influence operation abroad under a false flag.
Juraj Cintula, a Slovak citizen, born approximately in 1953, was detained by the police as a perpetrator of the assassination attempt. He was a security guard at a local shopping centre. He founded the DÚHA literary club (2005) and headed it from 2008 to 2016. He wrote “Sen rebela”, “Diptych”, “Osy” – satirical poems and published a book aboutgypsies – “Efata”, in 2015.
There was a post on SB Facebook page in 2016 citing Juraj Cintula: “last May I first heard of Slovak conscripts and I became attracted to them because of:
1. their ability to act without orders from the state, which is simply incomprehensible in such inactive community as ours;
2. their selfless commitment – they buy weapons and equipment themselves with their own money (Cintula used personal and registered weapons to attack Fico). They learn tactics and strategy themselves in their spare time… why do they do that?
Hundreds of thousands of migrants come to Europe, and we are a permanent part of them. Slovak conscripts gear up not for fighting, but for defense. Should anyone tell you they are getting ready for war, don’t believe them. Their main task is to protect the people, the country, traditions, culture – they are patriots.” This post means, therefore, that Cintula sympathized with the SB and shared their ideology. He wrote about his racist and anti-immigrant views in his book – Efata, in 2015, a year before he made a post on the SB page.
It looks like the LSNS was created as a paramilitary wing of the force that has far-right ideology, similar to projects in Europe supported by the Kremlin. Slovak Conscripts (Slovenskibranci, SB) is an unofficial, unregistered paramilitary group, founded in 2012 by a young university student called Peter Svrchek from Trnava.
There is also evidence that Slovenski branci cooperated with Russian Night Wolves, affiliated with Russia’s domestic intelligence agency, the FSB.
SB Recruits receive initial special training in Russia by the army’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU). Upon return to Slovakia, they continue trainings, often with an instructor coming from Russia from time to time to teach them Russian combat practice called The System. When the paramilitary organization was being formed, the leader of Slovenskí Branci underwent training with a Russian militia Narodny Sobor. During his three-week stay in Russia, Svrchek was trained by ex-Spetsnaz soldiers and he quickly started to pass his experience to other members of the group.
More on this story: Russia keeps setting up and backing neo-Nazi fighting groups in the West
We believe Robert Fico assassination attempt is most likely the result of using hybrid tools against NATO members. One of the main goals is to try to make Europe believe Ukraine’s involved. Slovakia’s Prime Minister shooting will trigger social radicalism amid recent protests against his policies. Cintula testifies that he made the assassination attempt because he disagreed with the populist line of the Fico government, associated with authoritarian rule and cooperation with Russia. With Fico consistently opposing military aid to Ukraine to counter Russia’s invasion, the Kremlin took the opportunity to immediately launch an information campaign saying the West was behind the assassination attempt to punish Bratilava for being loyal to the Kremlin.
We saw the attempts by Russia to spread disinformation on Cintula’s wife being a refugee from Ukraine, which was denied soon.
Russia fuels conspiracy theories abroad to undermine the United States and the allies. Moscow information narratives, meanwhile, speak for the Kremlin likely to repeat Fico’s scenario for Hungary’s Prime Minister Orban. The Kremlin is planning to portray the West as the one who kills government leaders ‘if their opinion does not align with Washington or Brussels’. That follows the patterns of Cold War information ops.
Moscow is eager to dismantle the EU and NATO, that is why the artificial conflict inside is needed.
Taking into account the feedback by Russia’s social media, like for the Crocus City Hall terrorist act, Moscow tried to blame Ukraine’s special agencies for the attempt on Fico’s life, which means that is an operation under a false flag. If Russia successfully includes this idea into the narrative, that might destroy European military support for Kyiv. If the emphasis is put on Washington’s involvement in the assassination attempt, that will hit the U.S. positions in Europe. It is important to point out that the shooting took place while the Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kyiv.
Fico assassination attempt does not look good for Russia, as he’s loyal to Moscow. But starting from February 2022, the Kremlin has made a bet on information ops. Fico shooting just makes it possible for Russia, with a well-planned disinformation campaign, to undermine Ukraine’s support in Europe. With a strong need to undermine the unity of the EU and NATO, Russia has to resort to extremely rough influence ops, like that of Fico. They are less effective, but more frequent, and likely to involve the use of force.
