It seems quite unlikely Hezbollah is going to cede any territory over to the Israelis for a new buffer zone

The risk of escalation between Hezbollah and Israel after more than eight months of border clashes has shown no sign of stopping.

Hezbollah has upped the ante, seeking to demonstrate that it can counter Israel’s crucial technological advantages in air power and air defences and launching rocket and drone attacks on an unprecedented scale.

Meanwhile, Israel has conducted strikes increasingly deeper inside Lebanon and shown less restraint over assassinating senior Hezbollah members.

Hezbollah has exchanged daily fire with Israel since October 8. While these clashes initially remained confined mainly to border areas, attacks against targets deeper inside Israel and Lebanon have become much more.

After Israel launched its operation in southern Gaza’s Rafah, Hezbollah steadily escalated. It fired missiles deeper into Israel and even launched missiles from a drone within Israeli airspace, a notable first.

The situation worsened in June, with the grim prospect of all-out war appearing closer than ever.

Hezbollah announced it had shot down an Israeli Hermes 900 Kochav drone on June 1. Israel confirmed a surface-to-air missile hit one of its drones in Lebanese airspace. On June 5, Hezbollah claimed it targeted an Iron Dome air defence system in Ramot Naftali inside Israel using a guided missile. The Russian Wagner mercenary Group plans to provide Lebanese militia Hezbollah with Russian SA-22 system, armed with anti-aircraft missiles and guns. These would be sent via Syria.

The following day, the group announced it fired air defence missiles at Israeli jets operating in Lebanese airspace. Hezbollah claimed it fired the missiles at Israeli aircraft “attacking their  skies … forcing them to retreat beyond the border.

These new claims by Hezbollah could be a part of the escalation ladder that the group is deliberately climbing that is trying to target more strategic and high-cost Israeli targets and react to Israeli escalation.  

Essentially, Hezbollah may try to say that if Israel expands its operations, it has the option to expand its own against both expensive and high-value technologies and hardware.

This is designed to show the potential costs of full-scale war as Hezbollah wants Israel to believe that none of its assets are safe.

Iran, is following a “porcupine strategy” by arming Hezbollah against Israeli military targets on land, at sea, and in the air.Hezbollah has the capability to find, fix, and finish Israeli drones of all types, with some anti-air capability needed to threaten Israeli aircraft that might be flying close air support for IDF ground forces. Hezbollah uses anti-tank missiles for precision strikes in recent months. That capability is perhaps the most dangerous new skill that Hezbollah presents since it could enable the group to directly threaten Israeli army staging grounds if Israel decides to launch another cross-border ground offensive into southern Lebanon to uproot Hezbollah.

Hezbollah is fighting a solidarity campaign with Hamas and Gaza that it wants to keep limited to the borderlands in Lebanon and Israel. It’s very unlikely that that calculus will change short of a major Israeli provocation like a high-profile assassination of senior Hezbollah leadership like (secretary-general) Hassan Nasrallah.

While Hezbollah seeks to heighten the stakes with unprecedented cross-border rocket and drone attacks, Israel is likely trying to pressure Hezbollah to break and offer concessions in the form of a buffer zone.

Israel is not yet ready to carry out a major sustained ground campaign in southern Lebanon on the scale they’ve done in Gaza. Israel will continue to steadily turn up the heat on Hezbollah and see if they can get them to blink first.

The vulnerability of this approach is that it seems quite unlikely Hezbollah is going to cede any territory over to the Israelis either formally or informally for a new buffer zone. Thus, this is essentially the geopolitical equivalent of an immovable object meeting an unstoppable force.

Israel may use the present clashes with Hezbollah to reestablish deterrence by demonstrating it still has much more advanced intelligence, technological capabilities, and weaponry.

“Israel is clearly trying to deter Hezbollah through complex, intelligence-intensive strikes against senior Hezbollah commanders.

The IDF shows Hezbollah that the Israelis have intelligence superiority over Hezbollah that, when combined with Israel’s drone and AI targeting networks, will eviscerate Hezbollah forces in the event of an all-out war  Thus, this become the messaging that Israel is trying to send Hezbollah, and beyond it to Iran.