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Conflict

Moscow’s Middle-East Adventure: Is Russian Support for the Syrian Regime Wag the Dog?
Posted inConflict

Moscow’s Middle-East Adventure: Is Russian Support for the Syrian Regime Wag the Dog?

Why is Moscow continuing to send troops to fight and die in the deserts of Syria while simultaneously fighting the rapidly growing Covid-19 pandemic at home? Russian military forces, both regular military…
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May 6, 2020Tags: David DeBatto, Russia, Syria
The drone’s strategy between Hezbollah and Israel
Posted inConflict Estimates

The drone’s strategy between Hezbollah and Israel

The New York Times from a few days ago reconstructs what happened in Syria on April 15th and reported in twitter images. An Israeli drone attacks a Jeep belonging to…
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April 28, 2020Tags: Gerta Zaimi, Hezbollah, Israel, Lebanon
North Caucasus on the verge of social upheaval
Posted inConflict Situation Reports

North Caucasus on the verge of social upheaval

The North Caucasus is one of the most flawed regions for the central government of the Russian Federation. The uncontrolled COVID-19 spread in certain parts of the North Caucasus and…
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April 17, 2020Tags: North Caucasus
Standing Up to the Russian Bear: Will Russia Deploy Little Green Men Against Estonia After the Pandemic Ends?
Posted inConflict Estimates

Standing Up to the Russian Bear: Will Russia Deploy Little Green Men Against Estonia After the Pandemic Ends?

The small Baltic nation of Estonia was considered a “vassal” state  (Soviet Republic) within the U.S.S.R. from the time of its invasion and occupation by Soviet forces on June 17, 1940 until August…
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April 15, 2020Tags: David DeBatto, Estonia, Russia
Lebanon: The Liberation of Amer Fakhoury and Hassan Nasrallah
Posted inConflict Situation Reports

Lebanon: The Liberation of Amer Fakhoury and Hassan Nasrallah

Amer Fakhoury is the one who will highlight a crack between Hezbollah's leadership and its base, what we had not been able to see in all the years of the…
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March 24, 2020Tags: Hezbollah, Lebanon
Muqtada al-Sadr: America’s Last Opportunity for Lasting Peace in Iraq
Posted inConflict Estimates

Muqtada al-Sadr: America’s Last Opportunity for Lasting Peace in Iraq

Muqtada al-Sadr is arguably the most powerful person in Iraq. Son of the deceased, popular Shiite leader and cleric, Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr, he commands a large and well-armed Iraqi…
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February 28, 2020Tags: David DeBatto, Iran, Iraq, Muqtada Al-Sadr, USA
Republika Srpska’s secession from BiH is impossible technically and pushes the Balkans in a new wave of violence
Posted inConflict Estimates

Republika Srpska’s secession from BiH is impossible technically and pushes the Balkans in a new wave of violence

The technical impossibility of Republika Srpska’s secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina might destabilize the situation in the Balkans that internal and external forces can benefit. Such a scenario may occur…
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February 21, 2020Tags: Balkans, Bosnia and Herzegovina, EU, NATO, Republica Srpska, Russia, Serbia
The future after Moldova’s reintegration
Posted inConflict Estimates

The future after Moldova’s reintegration

Moldova reverts to the plans for reintegration of Transnistria separatist republic developed in 2003. This initiative is obviously revived from the outside and does not come from the leadership of this…
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February 14, 2020Tags: Moldova, Russia, Transnistria
Cameroonian rebel groups start rivalry for power and access to finances
Posted inConflict Situation Reports

Cameroonian rebel groups start rivalry for power and access to finances

Internal rivalry for power among the separatist groups in Cameroon caused clashes between them and played into the hands of the military. Clashes between Cameroon’s rebel groups have intensified in the…
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January 24, 2020Tags: Cameroon
Russia is ready to change a political player in Abkhazia whose clans struggle for financial aid
Posted inConflict Situation Reports

Russia is ready to change a political player in Abkhazia whose clans struggle for financial aid

The political crisis in the self-proclaimed and unrecognized state of Abkhazia, the Caucasus, will not result in its foreign policy changes; however, it reflects the Abkhaz elites’ clans struggling for…
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January 11, 2020Tags: Abkhazia, Russia

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