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Governance

Death of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi: Likely Perpetrators, Political Logic, and Tribal Consequences
Posted inConflict Governance Terrorism

Death of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi: Likely Perpetrators, Political Logic, and Tribal Consequences

Most plausible motive cluster: spoiler prevention (removing a rallying figure for a “third force” / pro-Gaddafi current) + settling long-standing scores tied to 2011–2017 detention networks and post-2011 militia politics in western Libya.  High-risk…
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February 4, 2026Tags: Libya
Africa at the Margins: How U.S. Policy Shifts Create Openings for China and Russia
Posted in- Geopolitics Governance

Africa at the Margins: How U.S. Policy Shifts Create Openings for China and Russia

In early 2026, President Donald Trump nominated Frank W. Garcia Jr., a Republican congressional aide with limited Africa experience, to be Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of African Affairs, the…
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February 4, 2026Tags: Africa, USA
Russia’s Digital Sovereignty Doctrine: From Cybersecurity to Total Control
Posted inDemocracy Governance

Russia’s Digital Sovereignty Doctrine: From Cybersecurity to Total Control

In the new version of Russia’s Information Security Doctrine, mobile devices, satellite internet systems such as Starlink, as well as email services and other IT technologies developed by Western companies…
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January 29, 2026Tags: Russia
Barbados parliamentary election (Feb. 11, 2026): an analytic paper
Posted inDemocracy Governance

Barbados parliamentary election (Feb. 11, 2026): an analytic paper

Barbados votes on February 11, 2026 to elect all 30 seats in the House of Assembly (majority 16) after Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley called an early election; parliament is to be dissolved Jan. 19 and nomination day was…
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January 28, 2026Tags: Barbados, elections
Thailand’s 2026 General Election and Constitutional Referendum
Posted inDemocracy Governance

Thailand’s 2026 General Election and Constitutional Referendum

On 8 February 2026, Thailand held a snap general election to choose the 500-seat House of Representatives and, concurrently, a national referendum on whether to begin drafting a new constitution to replace the charter adopted…
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January 27, 2026Tags: elections, Thailand
Costa Rica’s 2026 general election (Feb. 1): an analytic brief
Posted inDemocracy Governance

Costa Rica’s 2026 general election (Feb. 1): an analytic brief

Costa Ricans vote February 1, 2026 to elect a president + 57-seat Legislative Assembly; a runoff is scheduled for April 5 if no candidate reaches the 40% threshold. This contest is being fought in the shadow of…
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January 27, 2026Tags: Costa Rica, Nayib Bukele
Hungary at War Without Troops: Viktor Orbán’s Alignment With Russia and the Hybrid Assault on Europe
Posted inDemocracy Governance

Hungary at War Without Troops: Viktor Orbán’s Alignment With Russia and the Hybrid Assault on Europe

Despite Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s repeated attempts to cloak his parliamentary pre-election campaign, scheduled for April, in pacifist rhetoric, it is increasingly difficult to sustain the claim that Hungary remains…
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January 27, 2026Tags: Hungary, Ukraine
From Counterintelligence to Domestic Control: The Strategic Logic of Germany’s BND Expansion
Posted inGovernance Intelligence ops

From Counterintelligence to Domestic Control: The Strategic Logic of Germany’s BND Expansion

According to the German chancellor’s plans, Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) is expected to significantly expand its surveillance capabilities. Particular attention will be devoted to internet communications transmitted from Germany…
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January 23, 2026Tags: BND, Germany
Orbán’s Nuclear Fear Campaign: How Budapest Turns EU Safety Guidance Into a Political Weapon
Posted in- Governance Propaganda and Disinformation

Orbán’s Nuclear Fear Campaign: How Budapest Turns EU Safety Guidance Into a Political Weapon

Viktor Orbán continues his political war with Brussels. Viktor Orbán’s government has responded irresponsibly to security recommendations for all European Union citizens developed in the European Parliament by politicians from…
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January 22, 2026Tags: Hungary
Political Reform in Kazakhstan: Why It’s Seen as “Political Transit,” Who Drives It, and What Comes Next
Posted inGovernance

Political Reform in Kazakhstan: Why It’s Seen as “Political Transit,” Who Drives It, and What Comes Next

Kazakhstan’s political reforms since 2022 are widely described as “political transit” because they are not merely technical adjustments to election law or institutions—they represent a managed transition of the post-Nazarbayev order into a new…
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January 21, 2026Tags: Kazakhstan

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