Ethiopia Archives - Robert Lansing Institute

Eritrea–Ethiopia Tensions: Causes, History, Risks, and Future Scenarios

Relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia have deteriorated sharply, with both countries publicly signaling possible preparation for war. Longstanding territorial disputes, mistrust borne of multiple past conflicts, and renewed military mobilization…

February 24, 2026Eritrea, Ethiopia

Geopolitics Warfare

Russia’s Arms Exports to Ethiopia and the Erosion of U.S. Leverage in the Horn of Africa

Russia’s supply of Yak-130 trainer/light attack aircraft and Orion strike UAVs to Ethiopia provides Addis Ababa with additional strike and reconnaissance capabilities without the political conditions that typically accompany Western military assistance. For the United States,…

January 30, 2026Ethiopia, Russia, USA

Geopolitics National Security Situation Reports

Sailing Without a Coast: Russia’s Role in Building Ethiopia’s Navy Staff and Its Regional Implications

In recent years, Ethiopia—despite being a landlocked country—has taken concrete steps toward re-establishing a naval force, an effort now receiving support from the Russian Federation. This cooperation reflects a convergence of strategic…

June 10, 2025Ethiopia, Russia

Conflict Democracy Governance

Reasons and prospects for the Amhara Rebellion

Ethiopia is in the grip of a civil war again between federal government forces and the Fano, a loose alliance of ethnic-based militia in the Amhara region. This conflict in Ethiopia's north erupted…

April 4, 2025Amhara, Ethiopia

Conflict Geopolitics

Ethiopia’s Red Sea Aspirations and Eritrea’s Interference in Tigray Heighten War Risks

Ethiopia's ambition to secure Red Sea access and Eritrea's interference in Ethiopia's internal affairs and a power struggle in Tigray could explode into a wider regional war. More on this story: Estimations:…

March 20, 2025Eritrea, Ethiopia

Conflict

The Amhara Insurgency: External Influences and the Evolving Geopolitical Landscape in Ethiopia

The conflict in Amhara poses a serious threat to Ethiopia’s fragile stability. It not only challenges the federal government’s authority but also risks deepening ethnic divisions, which could have far-reaching…

November 11, 2024Amhara, Ethiopia

Conflict Geoeconomics Geopolitics

Egypt creates anti-Ethiopia alliance in the Horn of Africa

The recent strengthening of relations between Egypt and certain African nations may indicate a rising likelihood of conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia. In early October, the presidents of Egypt, Eritrea,…

November 1, 2024Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somaliland

Geopolitics

Ethiopia’s Fears of Losing regional Influence

The tension between Ethiopia and Egypt appears to have escalated as Cairo extends support to Somalia's peace mission and an offer of security personnel to replace the African Union-backed force,…

September 2, 2024Egypt, Ethiopia, Somalia, Somaliland

Geopolitics Peacekeeping

Türkiye seeks to maintain a balance against the potential disruption of geostrategic interests

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud announced in a hard-hitting televised speech on the evening of 17 August that his country would not hold further talks with Ethiopia unless it "recognises the sovereignty…

August 23, 2024Ethiopia, Somalia, Turkiye

Democracy Governance Intelligence ops

Ethiopia is allowing interception of communications without court order further defeating democracy standards

The Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives is currently considering a new bill that would empower investigators to intercept communications and correspondence without judicial authorization. This authority would be applicable in specific cases…

June 13, 2024Ethiopia

Ethiopia