Iran Archives - Robert Lansing Institute

Probability of a U.S. strike on Iran (late Jan 2026)

What’s pushing the probability up Visible military posture shift: reporting over the past week describes a major U.S. buildup—carrier presence and additional air assets—plus multi-day U.S. aerial exercises in the region under CENTCOM. …

January 28, 2026Iran, Russia, USA

Estimates Geopolitics Governance

Trump’s Policies and Politics of Permanent Crisis

Coercion, Credibility, and a Strategic Disconnect in U.S. Foreign Policy The Trump administration’s aggressive foreign policy posture toward Mexico, Iran, Cuba, and Denmark reflects a governing logic built around coercion as policy,…

January 19, 2026Cuba, Greenland, Iran, Mexico, USA

Democracy Governance

Protests in Iran (Dec 2025–Jan 2026): Prospects for the Regime and the Future of Democracy

Iran is experiencing the most lethal protest wave in decades, triggered by economic collapse dynamics (currency depreciation, inflation, cost-of-living shock) and amplified by accumulated political rage. Death toll reporting varies…

January 19, 2026Iran

Democracy Intelligence ops National Security

Russia’s “Internet Kill Switch” Export: How Moscow Helped Iran Crush Protests

Russia allegedly helped Iran disable mobile communications and isolate the country from the global Internet as mass anti-government protests escalated into the most serious domestic challenge the Islamic Republic has…

January 16, 2026Cyberattacks, Iran, Russia

Geoeconomics Geopolitics

From Economics to Power Projection: BRICS Plus Demonstrates Military Ambition in South African Waters

From 9 to 16 January 2026, naval military exercises entitled “Will for Peace” are being held in the territorial waters of the Republic of South Africa. Participating in these drills are both BRICS…

January 5, 2026BRICS, China, Iran, Russia, USA

Governance

Iran’s Protests: Drivers, Actors, Consequences, and External Dimensions

Protests in Iran are no longer episodic political turbulence — they represent a persistent structural crisis within the Islamic Republic. Since 2017, waves of unrest have periodically erupted: economic protests (2017–2019),…

January 2, 2026Iran

Geopolitics National Security Warfare

Iran Launches Three Home-Built Observation Satellites from Russian Cosmodrome, Deepening Strategic Cooperation

Iran has launched three domestically produced observation satellites into space, using a Russian cosmodrome for the mission.According to official reports from Iran’s state television, this launch marks another significant milestone…

December 30, 2025Iran, Israel, Russia, USA

Geopolitics National Security Warfare

From Tehran to the Frontlines: Russia’s Expanding Global Recruitment Campaign for the War in Ukraine

In December 2025, reports emerged that Russia has begun a large-scale campaign to recruit Iranian citizens to fight in its war against Ukraine. Throughout multiple cities in the Islamic Republic…

December 12, 2025Iran, Russia, Ukraine

Geopolitics National Security Situation Reports

Russia–Iran Defense Convergence: Strategic Implications for U.S. Policy

Russian military deliveries to Tehran indicate the formation of a deeper defense alliance that extends beyond a situational partnership. The use of heavy transport aircraft to deliver undisclosed cargo—likely related…

November 4, 2025Iran, Russia, USA

National Security Nonproliferation

Undoing the Agreement: How Iran and Russia Are Redefining the Nuclear Order

On October 20, 2025, according to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, Russia declared its readiness to expand cooperation with Iran in all areas, emphasizing that Iran is already a strategic partner.…

October 21, 2025Iran, nuclear weapons, Russia, USA

Iran