Russia is destabilizing French society, turning it against the government and seeking the overthrow of President Emmanuel Macron. This objective is driven by France’s role in Europe and Africa, where…
Russia appears to be returning to active subversive operations in Germany after a period of concentrating on influence campaigns and psychological operations. We are convinced that the Kremlin is seriously…
The existing indicators point to the Kremlin preparing subversive operations against Finland.” Although A deliberate, large-scale Russian conventional attack on Finland remains unlikely in 2025–27, given Russia’s force commitments and degraded conventional capacity.…
Russia continues to probe NATO’s tolerance for boundary violations, acts of sabotage against defense and infrastructure facilities, interference in political processes, and the creation of transport-related threats, including attempts on…
Russian intelligence agencies responsible for influence operations have begun to employ artificial intelligence, particularly deepfake technology, to fabricate “evidence” aimed at discrediting foreign politicians. One recent example appeared in the…
1. Probability of Military Action Assessment: Direct intervention is improbable without a major humanitarian or security crisis that shifts U.S. or regional calculus. 2. Scenarios of Military Operation A. Limited Intervention (Low-Intensity, Air/Maritime…
