Reasons and indicators for political shifts in Russia

Russian online resources, affiliated with the FSB and personally Nikolai Patrushev, the Security Council Head, starting from October 26, 2023, have been spreading information on the death of Russian President Vladimir Putin at his Valdai residence. We can neither verify nor deny this fact, but we believe we should analyze the importance and reasons why it has emerged.

The websites that claim ‘Putin’s dead’, have been posting insides for almost 2 years, saying the president is severely ill, incapable, does not take part in public decision-making, and the FSO (Federal Guard Service of the Russian Federation) in coordination with Nikolai Patrushev supervise the activity of his body double. We estimate that in a country where people are prosecuted for reposting calls for peace on social networks, the FSB is the only security agency to authorize existence of websites that undermine the head of state’s reputation. These online resources are therefore used as a tool for influence campaigns.

Meanwhile, Putin’s health inferences are in line with the findings by RLI analysts who came to believe that Russia’s president suffers from multiple serious illnesses, based on:

• analysis of video with his participation,  
• his family medical history, 
• precautions taken to minimize Putin’s contacts with people who didn’t go through quarantine procedure (which spoke of his immune system problems), 
• some details of competitive struggle in Russia’s military and security agencies, detrimental to national security,
• careful protection of the President’s biological materials on foreign visits, to avoid being diagnosed by hostile forces.

Based on the alleged diagnosis, we predicted that Putin would lose the capacity to make decisions before the end of 2022. Then we adjusted the forecast, as we got information on Israeli physicians brought in to treat him.

The forecast was adjusted only in time, however, with no health improvement option, in light of a pessimistic scenario.

Russian publics have launched a lively discussion on Putin’s health problems concurrently with the talks on prospects for the so-called transfer of power in Russia, given the 2024 elections.

We recently stressed that Nikolai Patrushev has expanded his powers, which reached the peak after Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny. We cannot rule out, therefore, that Putin’s health problems were brought up for discussion in Russia as part of preparing for the transfer of power, with the task to refocus the elites and Vladimir Putin’s inner circle on a new center of influence. The findings on how the role of key actors in Russia has changed since the start of the war against Ukraine indirectly confirm that.Information stuffing on Putin’s health in Russia could have possibly been a ground for a so-called impending palace coup at the Kremlin, where key actors in Putin’s entourage failed to agree whether Putin is an appropriate president, with opportunities limited for the elites as a result of the sanctions imposed. Some classified files published by the Tagesspiegel on April 13 and April 14 support this idea. Despite the need to confirm, the files claim that Nikolai Patrushev and Russia’s Chief-of-Staff Gerasimov tried to sabotage the invasion of Ukraine at the beginning of the war, to end it on March 5, 2022, not the way Putin wanted. This scenario looks plausible, given the fact Patrushev seeks to comfort his son, current Russia’s Minister of Agriculture, who is eager to become a president.

We had prevoiusly assumed that cleaning of political scene in Russia would not allow for nominating a presidential candidate who would satisfy Putin’s entourage and be able to gain popular support. We assumed, therefore, that with Putin incapable, the Kremlin might imitate the status quo using a body double.

At the same time, the information on Putin’s death may have appeared amid preparation for the 2024 elections, as his rating has dropped. The Kremlin, for this purpose, throws information to cause shock and uncertainty for Russian people, like it was when Stalin died, triggering popular frustration, despite his bloody rule. With information refuted further, however, showing a trained boby double, Moscow might hope for a surge in popularity and growth in Putin’s rating, or attempt to cancel the elections indefinitely, under public pressure.

Face recognition, voice comparison and body movement research in Japan with the help of AI shows there are several body doubles, in line with Soviet-times practice by the Russians.

Complex face recognition technology showed that Putin who inspected the Crimean Bridge 10 months ago matched by not more than 53 percent with Putin on Red Square, where the real Russian president was.

A body double who appeared in occupied Mariupol, Ukraine, this March, shows only a 40 percent similiarity to Putin, who took part in the May 9 celebrations on Red Square.

Resemblance between Putin on the Crimean Bridge and Putin in Mariupol is 18 percent.

Voice analysis by a lab at the Japan Institute of Audio Communications, based on voice biometrics and focused on the word “spasibo” (thank you), showed that Putin’s voice differs fron one event to another. With difference in pronunciation of  “s”, there is also a remarkable gap in pronunciation of “pa” and “si” in succession.

The lab demonstrated voice analysis graphs that specified differences in accents. Even taking into account different environment for recording, and the utterance itself, such strong differences are an extremely rare thing, expert Mutsutoshi Muraoka says. He believes the voices most likely belong to different people. Analysis graphs show they differ dramatically.

The Japanese researchers claim that analysis of body movements with the help of AI  leads to the conclusion that Putin uses body doubles.

These findings confirm our hypotheses and assumptions that the Kremlin will likely try to use a body double in case of Putin’s incapacity.

Some events took place after October 26, likely to indirectly confirm Putin’s death:

• Defense Minister Shoigu made a statement on readiness for peace talks that goes far beyond his competence. 
• Patrushev blamed the U.S for some cases, the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage,  and inciting the conflict between Israel and the Gaza Strip among them. Patrushev, that way, becomes a key hawk, in order to strengthen his negotiating position on a foreign track.
• FSO drills in Moscow during 1-3 of November with coup scenario.

President Lukashenko of Belarus  reaffirmed he was ready to mediate peace talks between Moscow and Kiev.

Lukashenko said he demanded compensation from the Russians, as they failed to meet the deadline while constructing the nuclear power plant. This is the first time he has shown such rhetoric since 2013, which may speak for, from his point of view, Moscow’s shaken position.

That way, we cannot say that ‘Putin’s dead’, but we can say he was likely technically removed from power, with attempts by his closest circle to keep the hands on the levers. This will require intensive talks by the beneficiaries with the West. We estimate that Patrushev will make an attempt to take the seat of prime minister, as that will give him a chance, according to the Constitution, to lay claim to the presidency through the succession of power, if Putin’s death is confirmed. This will de-facto repeat Putin’s scenario when he came to power following President Yeltsin’s resignation. Russia’s government reshuffle in the next 1.5 months will be a key indicator for that.