Ankara demonstrates interests in overseas campaigns. This is very important sign of Turkish ambition and doninance in the MENA region. Ankara has sought to develop a policy of influence in the aftermath of the fall of Libya’s former ruler Moammar Gaddafi.
Dec. 26 President Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkey will send troops to Libya now that Tripoli has requested it, and he will present legislation to parliament in January for deployment to the north African country. Ankara signed two separate accords a month ago with Libya’s internationally recognised government of Fayez al-Serraj, one on security and military cooperation and another on maritime boundaries in the eastern Mediterranean.
Serraj’s Government of National Accord (GNA) has been fending off a months-long offensive by Khalifa Haftar’s forces in eastern Libya. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and France are aligned with Khalifa Haftar, the Libyan general turned warlord who seeks to topple the GNA with his Libyan National Army.
“Since there is an invitation (from Libya) right now, we will accept it,” Erdogan told members of his AK Party in a speech. “We will put the bill on sending troops to Libya on the agenda as soon as parliament opens.” The UN Security Council already found that Turkey, along with Jordan and the UAE, was among the governments violating the weapons embargo in Libya by arming warring sides. Over the summer this year, Turkish military advisers, limited arms deliveries, and a fleet of around 20 drones helped forces defending against Haftar push back on all fronts. However, it seems likely that recent comments made by Erdogan and foreign minister Mevlüt Cavusoglu about actually sending Turkish troops are directed more at international actors involved in Libya rather than domestic players.
Egyptian already posturing over the matter won’t necessarily deter Turkey, and it hasn’t stopped Turkish gas exploration and aggression in the Med.
Earlier this month, 2019 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with Fayez Mustafa al-Sarraj the Prime-Minister of the Tripoli-based GNA and the Chairman of the Presidential Council of Libya, to sign agreements on the delimitation of maritime jurisdictions as well as security and military cooperation. Ankara tries to negotiate with GNA in energy issues and balancing between NATO and Russia in Libya. Turkey had $15 billion worth of outstanding contracts in Libya during Gaddafi’s regime in power. Turkish companies were also involved in numerous lucrative construction projects in Libya.
Ankara crafted the move to counter its regional rivals, Cyprus, Greece, Egypt and Israel. The most significant benefit to Turkey of this rapprochement is its ability to restrict oil and gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean off the coast of Cyprus.
While UN-backed GNA is supported by majority of democratic states, Russia looks at Khalifa Haftar as a partner to reach strategic goals in this country. The Kremlin turns back to Soviet policy to set military base in Libya and control the oil-fields to influence the world energy market.
So, while Turkey cooperates with Russia on Syria, they have different approach in Libya case supporting confronting forces. Russia send in Libya military group from Prigozhin’s private military company Wagner. Also several groups of Russian mil intel and SOF are working in this country providing op support and advising Haftar’s forces.
It looks like not coordinated work of Turkey and Russia in Libya, so it is possible that both side will face each other on a battlefield. This will be the second time when Russian and Turkish forces go in direct action since Russian fighter was downed by Turkish air force in 2015 over Syrian border. There are no signs that Russia supports the Turkey GNA deal.
So, things could get sticky between Turkey and Russia in Libya, depending on how far the sides push their involvement in direct confrontation with the other.
Probably, Turkey will make a bit on Tuaregs tribes in case of Libyan mil campaign.
The first signs of such cooperation appeared on April 1, 2018 with visit to Turkey of 10 Tuareg sheikhs and leaders from Libya . It started a series of contacts that have been arranged by operatives of Erdoğan as part of efforts to woo the Tuaregs in recent years. The goal is to use Tuaregs for advancing the policies of the current Turkish government in general. The Tuaregs may provide Erdoğan with a new set of tools to blackmail a few African countries including Libya, Mali, Algeria and Niger and to hit back at Western allies.
Emrullah İşler was that who in charge of the Tuareg file in the Turkish government.The point man who Erdoğan has trusted with managing Libyan affairs since he was deputy prime minister in the previous government. İşler made several trips to Libya as a special envoy, often meeting with Islamist faction leaders as well as others. His lat position was the chairman of the parliamentary Commission on Education, Youth and Sports.
The Tuaregs’ schedule included meeting with İbrahim Kalın, an Islamist ideologue who works in the palace as Erdoğan’s spokesperson. He was rumored to be the next chief of Turkish intelligence agency MİT. Kalın coordinates the activities of most Islamist groups abroad, often meeting with them in Ankara in order to advise and guide their operations.
According the reliable information the second track contacts are maintained by a controversial charity group, the Foundation for Human Rights and Freedoms and Humanitarian Relief (İnsan Hak ve Hürriyetleri ve İnsani Yardım Vakfı). It is backed by Erdoğan and working closely with Turkish intelligence.
In spring 2018, Ahmad Matku Neenu Moustafa, Tuareg tribal sheikh, and Aboulbakr Alfaqi Anqidazin Abkidah, chairman of the Tuareg Cultural Assembly, were among the members of the delegation.
