An on-going attempt to hold the constitutional referendum in Guinea may fuel tension among the ethnic groups in the country and cause confrontation in the country, externalities involved.
Guinean President Condé announced in a statement last week that the country will hold a two-way vote on March 1 – for legislative elections and a constitutional referendum.
The proposed draft sets the terms at six years instead of five renewable once and does not state whether he would be allowed to run, which the current constitution forbids. The president of the National Assembly and the Constitutional Court had already agreed to the President’s proposal.
According to the formal Conde’s explanation, a new constitution is needed to replace the 2010 version, which was drafted to end military ruler Dadis Camara’s short time in power and was never adopted by popular vote.
But opposition parties in Guinea have formed a coalition to denounce what it has been termed a ‘constitutional coup d’etat’ by President Alpha Condé.
Since mid-October 2019, the West African nation has been the scene of protests against the long-standing plan of the president, who was elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2015, to contest the 2020 presidential race. The US also cautioned against repression of opposing voices. According to reports, the protests have left at least 20 civilians dead and dozens arrested.
Politicians Cellou Dalein Diallo, the President of the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) and the president of the opposition group Union of Republican Forces and a former prime minister Sidya Touré have been leading protests against a possible third term that incumbent president Alpha Condé looks likely to try to push through.
Touré was appointed as the prime minister after a coup attempt in February 1996. He was characterized that time as part of an effort by former president Lansana Conté to pursue reforms. However, after a few years of Touré’s reformist policies, Lansana Conté appeared to change course and dismissed Touré. After leaving the government, Touré became an opposition leader.
Diallo, a member of the Fulani ethnic group, also was the prime-minister of Guinea since 2004 till 2006. Allegations of corruption coupled with disagreements with Conté’s top associates, particularly Fodé Bangoura, the Secretary-General of the Presidency, and Mamadou Sylla, a wealthy businessman, culminated in Diallo’s removal from his prime minister post.
It is generally estimated that the 11.5 million Guineans are roughly divided between the Peul (or Fulani) with some 40 percent of the population, the Malinké with about 30 percent, the Sousou with around 20 percent, and various smaller groups who make up the remaining 10 percent.
Since independence in 1958, the country has been governed by three Malinké (Ahmed Sékou Touré, 1958-1984; Sékouba Konaté, 2009-2010; and Alpha Condé, 2010-present), a Sousou (Lansana Conté, 1984-2008), and a Guerze from the Forest Region (Moussa Dadis Camara, 2008-2009). Despite the group’s numerical plurality, no Fulani has ever been president.
The violence has taken on ethnic dimensions, as politicians have tried to pit Fulani–Diallo’s ethnic group–against Malinké and Soussou.
The United States has officially reacted to plans by Guinean president Alpha Conde to revise the constitution in a move aimed at running for a third term in office.
A statement issued by the Department of State said the US questions whether the process will be free fair and transparent and accurately reflect the will of eligible voters. The Trump administration favors a formal end to Condé’s time in power when his second term ends. This contrasts strongly with the Russian position as stated in January by the former Russian ambassador to Guinea and now the head of the Guinean branch of Russian Rusal aluminum company Alexander Bregadze, who came out in favor of changing the constitution. Russian position is formed due to interests of Russian aluminum firm Rusal in this country, a powerful position in the bauxite-rich country and its corrupted relations with current authorities of Guinea.
Thus, Conde’s attempt to be re-elected for the third term may trigger Fulani’s critical uproar and escalation in the country, as it happened in 2013 amid suspicions of non-transparent election.In fact, Conde’s referendum plan is a copy of referendum in 2001, when ex-president Lansana Conté organized and won a referendum to lengthen the presidential term and in 2003 begun his third term after elections were boycotted by the opposition.
