The results of Togo elections may trigger unrest in the country. Further developments will depend both on the tactics of the opposition groups, which may resort to violent protest actions, and on President Gnassingbé, who resists the temptation to minimize freedoms in the country to hold down his post.
On February 22, the country held a presidential election, the incumbent president Faure Gnassingbé, in power since 2005, being among the candidates. However, in fact, Faure Gnassingbé assumed the mantle of his father, thus making the Gnassingbé clan rule the country for more than 50 years.
Destabilizing risks in Togo grew up after constitutional amendments of 2019. They allowed Gnassingbé to run for president for the next term and actually remain in power until 2030. It also grants him immunity for acts committed during his tenure in office. In addition, the amendments changed the election system from the first-past-the-post system to two-round elections. Thus, Gnassingbé tried to secure himself against possibly united opposition candidates.
Preparations for these constitutional changes triggered mass protests in 2017-2018.
Jean-Pierre Fabre, with the National Alliance for Change, was the principal competitor for the incumbent. He came in second in the last two election campaigns. He failed to unite the opposition sharply raising Gnassingbé’s chances to win amid changing electoral laws.
Fabre represents the country’s south, unlike the incumbent president, who belongs to Kabiye people, living in the north central mountains and northern plains of Togo. Northern political leaders have traditionally supported the regime. Under Gnassingbé’s authority many members of the Kabiye tribe came to dominate leadership in Togo’s military and political institutions.
The ruling government relied on a tribal principle for a long time, favouring Kabyès, the community of Gnassingbé and, within this community, natives of Pya, Gnassingbé’s father native village. The regime cultivated ethnic discourse that has thereafter stratified the society and artificially consolidated tribal imbalance.
Following the election results, a Togo opposition leader has accused authorities of setting up fake polling stations in Saturday’s presidential election to skew the result in favour of the incumbent. However, the authorities reject the allegations. The opposition has raised concerns about ballot papers not being verified and voters not being registered.
Togo is the only West African country which has not experienced a democratic change of government.
Messan Agbéyomé Gabriel Kodjo, former prime minister and head of the national assembly, also accused the authorities of ballot stuffing and getting people to cast multiple votes in Mr Gnassingbé’s favour.
3 hours after the polling stations had closed, the government forces rounded up his house under the pretext of ensuring his safety. There is a possibility that Kodjo’s candidacy is backed from abroad and can be used as a dark horse in case of repeat elections or power projected developments in the country.
The army’s ethnic base is associated with Kabyès. In case the opposition groups win and try to change the top military fundamentally, a military coup is highly likely to be successful, considering the streamlined system of government within the tribal structure of the country and the solid horizontal of the existing military and civilian system.
Things seem to be going from bad to worse as Muslim religious associations are loyal to the government and openly support the regime. At the same time, the Episcopal Conference, the Sovereign National Conference, chaired by the prelate Philippe Fanoko Kpodjro, back the opposition groups. Thus, in case of escalation, political contradictions may acquire a religious coloring as well.
The risk to destabilize the situation in Togo is driven by the complex situation in neighboring Burkina Faso, where jihadists are active.Togo has so far managed to prevent the bloodshed spilling over and its army and intelligence service are among the most effective in the region. But if clashes start in the country, jihadists are likely to infiltrate the territory of Togo, becoming an additional destabilizing factor. The extremely high poverty level among the Togolese population favours the new members to be recruited by terrorist organizations.
