Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s swoop against potential royal challengers shows his concerns about his grip on power.
March 6, King Salman’s full young brother, Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, as well Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, Prince Nawaf bin Nayef (former crown prince) were arrested on the treason charges. Apart from them, there is a high possibility that other princes, Faisal bin Salman, Husam bin Saud, Faisal bin Navaf, Bandar bin Salman, Faisal bin Salman, Khalid bin Salman were detained too (not proved).
The Wall Street Journal reported that Interior Ministry officials, senior army officers and others suspended from a coup attempt were also detained.
The situation in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is determined by the expectation of a power handover considering aging King Saudi Arabia Salman, 85, and his health condition.
Mohammed bin Salman is Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, King Salman’s son, the second deputy prime minister and defense minister.
Ahmed Abdulaziz is the full brother of King Salman and one of the only surviving sons of Saudi Arabia’s first king. He is a senior member of the Allegiance Council, a group of Royals that votes on matters of success. He was one of the Council’s three members who voted against bin Salman as the future King in 2017.
In the Kingdom Prince Nawaf bin Nayef is considered to be as the United States’ favorite. Washington has accused Mohammed bin Salman of organizing the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the KSA Embassy in Turkey in 2018. Thus, logically, the Crown Prince views bin Nayef as the United States’ protégé for the throne. Bin Salman’s circle representatives state that the Crown Prince is doubtful of President Trump’s election victory, and considers American Democrats as the ones who are negative towards him and his candidacy for the throne.
He was considered to be as one of the most probable successors of the Saudi throne in the times of King Fahd.
The mentioned arrests may indicate Prince Salman’s intent to undermine his political rivals’ positions before the latter can prevent him from the throne encroachment. In particular, since 2017 the Crown Prince has pursued a consistent policy of removing Prince Nawaf bin Nayef from the throne.
His behavior indicates that he sees the situation around him as vulnerable. It can be explained with the Crown Prince’s permanent fears of coup. Now the Kingdom’s image for him goes to the background that may be explained by the high risk of losing advantage because of his opponents’ activity. This very fear is based either on significant deterioration in the king’s health and reliable information on his imminent death, or receiving information about the coup attempt against bin Salman planned by other royal family members.
Prince bin Salman eliminates all possible alternatives. The necessity to perform such actions is explained by the royal norms and perceptions provoked by the high risks to the king’s health rather than by the real threat level.
Traditionally, Mohammed bin Salman has been characterized by rapid and unpredictable measures to tighten control.
All this is happening at a time when bin Salman is trying to neutralize the consequences of his own enemy-created domestic and foreign policy, as well as the Kingdom’s budget problems caused by the adverse oil market situation. The oil price fall because of coronavirus threatens further fall of raw material prices that undermines the Crown Prince’s plans to diversify the economy and fulfill his ambitious state development plans.
The arrests unlikely took place on the King’s consent in order to hand over the throne to his son, the hereditary prince Muhammad bin Salman, and eliminate the risks from other possible throne candidates.
The treason allegations-based arrests that could carry the death penalty – unprecedented against such senior relatives. Therefore, this plan likely was not agreed with the King. Hereditary Prince Muhammad, most likely, imitated the coup in order to consolidate power in his hands in future. If the coup is an imitation, the accused will get right to be pardoned, redeem and escape sentence, the procedure the Kingdom used to practice before.
