Despite the refusal of the President of Côte d’Ivoire Alassane Ouattara to run for elections in October 2020, his intent to hand over power effectively might result in a political crisis caused by attempts to maintain his influence in the country, including by making pressure on opposition forces, preventing their candidates from getting victory and disrupting elections.
Taking into account the ethno-tribal principle based division of the Ivorian electorate radical attempts to influence the election results could potentially destabilize the situation in the country.
March 6, the Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara stated he would not stand for re-election in October, ending speculation about his political future ahead of a highly-anticipated vote. Ouattara had previously said he would run if his longtime political rivals were candidates, defying opponents who say the constitution does not give him the right to seek a third term. But he declared in a speech before lawmakers that he would hand over power to a new generation after 10 years in office.
Ouattara’s decision more likely could give time to his political party to bring Marcel Amon-Tanoh, foreign affairs minister, and Albert Mabri Toikeusse, higher education minister, to align themselves behind Amadou Gon Coulibaly, Prime Minister and dolphin of the Head of State. Coulibaly is seen by many as a technocrat, much like Ouattara, but without the same charisma.
However, Ouattara’s statement is off chance a part of a more complex combination targeting at remaining in power by disrupting elections. The constitutional amendments process proves this very scenario. This trick is traditionally used to obtain legal grounds to run for elections beyond legislatively established terms of office.
Quattara gave some information on the revision of the Constitution, the draft of which was adopted in the Council of Ministers. Hehas decided to abolish the presidential “ticket”. The Vice-President will thus be appointed by the elected Head of State, with the agreement of Parliament. Another change is the term of office of parliamentarians will be extended in the event that elections cannot be held on time. The Supreme Court is also abolished.
Taking into account that the statement of intent to amend the Constitution was made on the eve of the refusal to run for the elections, the latter could have been made to neutralize the electoral effect on constitutional changes and divert attention from the true target.
Ouattara still feared that his preferred successor, Coulibaly, could be defeated by an alliance between former rebel leader Guillaume Soro and Bedie.
Political tensions have been on the rise in recent months after the government issued an arrest warrant for Guillaume Soro, a presidential candidate and former rebel leader whose forces swept Ouattara to power in 2011. He is accused in attempting to undermine the authority of the State and the integrity of the national territory and conspiracy against the authority of the State; concealment of misappropriation of public funds and money laundering. On February 2019, Guillaume Soro resigned from the presidency of the National Assembly, after succumbing to pressure from President Alassane Ouattara. This came after Soro refused to join Ouattara’s new party – The Rally of the Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) – and lead to a major dispute between the two politicians. Soro wanted an alliance with former president Henri Konan Bédié, the leader of the Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI), in the run-up to the October 2020 presidential election. Bédié also broke off ties with Ouattara by refusing to join the RHDP.He was planning to return to Côte d’Ivoire from exile to launch his pre-election campaign from Ouattara’s stronghold in the North. ‘Sons of the North’, Ouattra and Soro are originally from the Senoufo region of Tchologo. In fact, Guillaume Soro finds himself today in the same situation as his ex-mentor Ouattara twenty years ago, before the Christmas coup of 1999 that brought down Bédié.
However, Ouattara’s (Dioulatribe) two main rivals, Southerners Gbagbo (Bété) and Bedie (Baoule tribe), have not yet said whether they will be candidates in October.
Originally, the political tension in Côte d’Ivoire followed the inter-tribal strife between the southern tribes the Béte and the Baule, representing the ethnic minority in the country, and the Dioula group, the northerners of the Mandé people, the country’s second largest tribe. Most of the representatives of the Bete are Christians, while the Dioula members are Muslims. However, religious differences are not the main basis of conflict. It is based on a tribal factor reinforced by wealth disparity. In the colonial and post-colonial period, the Dioula tribes were far from ruling.
In the early 1980s, the authorities started repressing the northerners politically. These processes coincided with the growing demand for cocoa beans in the world market. The southern part of the country is the world’s center on cocoa beans growing.
