Guyana is falling into a political crisis marked by external meddling in the election, intervention risks of and ethnic confrontation.
The catalyst for the crisis was the electoral commission’s decision to release unverified results from the capital region — in violation of a court injunction — that propelled the ruling party from trailing to slightly ahead in the vote count. The announcement of the results was criticized by four groups of international observers and main Western embassies, who said the process did not follow the country’s laws and lacked transparency. Following the preliminary results, opposition leaders denounced “thievery”, and diplomats from the United States, the European Union, Canada and the United Kingdom said results released by the election commission for one of the country’s regions were not credible.
Opposition leaders said the elections commission altered results from an area called Region Four, the most populous electoral district, to give Granger, the sitting president, of the APNU-AFC coalition, a wide margin over Irfaan Ali of the opposition PPP party.
Contradictory materials appeared in the media, while the exit polls and the tallies for the first small part of the votes showed a slight gap between the two leading candidates – A Partnership for National Unity + Alliance for Change (APNU + AFC), represented by the sitting President David Granger, and the Progressive People’s Party (PPP / C), in favor of PPP / C.
Guyana is the world’s newest oil producer. President David Granger is supported primarily by Guyanese of African descent, while the opposition is backed by the descendants of Indian farmhands who have grown suspicious that the other is seeking to control oil revenue. The next government will manage the first proceeds from the oil boom that is expected to lavish Guyana with tens of billions of dollars this decade.
The president’s choice is to allow a recount or declare himself a winner. In the latter case, the opposition is likely to boycott the parliament in response. This will put a halt on the reforms in the country, block foreign investment and prevent the government from spending oil export profits, as this requires parliamentary approval. Ethnic confrontation in the country is also a menace under this scenario. Indo-Guyanese group is the largest ethnic group in the country (43.5%). As a comparison, Afro-Guyanese group makes up 30.2% of the country’s population. Moreover, the growth in their numbers was in 1980-1991. Thus, a larger ethnic group is in opposition.
There is a good probability for external interference, as three people were deported from Guyana for election meddling.
Public Security Minister Khemraj Ramjattan yesterday said the police expelled two Russians and a Libyan national from Guyana on the belief that they were here to interfere in the electoral process. According to the minister, “people of Russian origin” spoke with leaders of the opposition People’s Progressive Party and tried to gain access to the election commission system. Moreover, Ramjattan himself is a candidate for the post of prime minister from the ruling coalition “Cooperation for the sake of national unity and the union for change.”
Noteworthy in this whole story is the fact that the Guyana leadership does not consider everything that happened to be “intrigues of the Kremlin”. Moscow used to work with President Granger, and his replacement was not on the agenda.Thus, Russia could have meddled in trying to vilify the opposition and set the stage for challenging election results and roiling the country.
Analysis findings confirm a “Russian connection” in Guyana. On August 15, 2019, Russia’s Foreign Ministry reported on a plan to train alleged Venezuelan refugees in a British military base in Guyana, this in order to deploy them in the South American country to perpetrate violent acts. Thus, Russia’s meddling in Guyana’s elections, that shares a border with Venezuela, could secure Maduro’s regime and simplify weapons and drugs smuggling along the Essequibo River, according to Moscow’s plan. Most recently, the British completed the construction of that British military base, on one of the islands at the mouth of the Essequibo River, to combat the smuggling.
A roil in Guyana meets the Kremlin’s interests as for the rise of Nicolas Maduro’s regime. If Guyana is roiled, Venezuelan proxies, backed by the Cuban units, are likely to intervene, allowing Caracas to resolve a long-standing territorial dispute. Venezuela claims two-thirds of Guyana’s territory, located west of the Essequibo River, that are rich in natural resources – gold and diamonds, particularly. Moreover, a large oil field was discovered in this region. The population of the disputed territory is 283,000. If Venezuela obtains operational control over this territory, it will control oil fields. President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela has repeatedly claimed that his country will keep on advancing demands for the return of Essequibo. A potential operation in Guyana will allow Maduro to boost his polling numbers in the country and gather the ruling party’s backing.
In its turn, Russia could deploy a military presence on this soil, in close proximity to the US borders.
In fact, Russia could suggest such solution to the territorial dispute, based on Crimea’s annexation case. Caracas considered the issue of granting Venezuelan passports to local residents living in the jungle of Essequibo, in line with Russian practice to “passportize” the areas of interest.
And in 2015, Maduro declared, “We will return what our ancestors left us.”
