Extremist groups around the world are capitalizing on the coronavirus pandemic to rally their members around a common cause and spread chaos and violence. According to a report by veteran reporter Bridget Johnson, currently the managing editor for Homeland Security Today, the world’s most active militant groups have issued numerous edicts and proclamations about COVID-19.
Johnson explains that most militant groups “have shown some concern” about their members’ health and wellbeing amidst the pandemic. The Islamic State was arguably the first Islamist group to instruct its members to take precautions against COVID-19. Johnson writes that the group began highlighting the threat of the virus in January, when an article in Al-Naba, the Islamic State’s weekly newsletter, expressed “growing concern about the spread of the infectious virus”. The militant group has since prescribed that “the healthy should not enter the land of the epidemic and the afflicted should not exit from it”, and has advised its members to wash their hands and “cover the mouth when yawning and sneezing”.
In the past month, the Afghan Taliban have been carrying a “COVID-19 awareness campaign” in areas under their control. The campaign centers on community events that feature the distribution of masks, soap and informational pamphlets to familie. Taliban commanders have also been issuing regular warnings and threats against those who are caught resorting to price gouging or hoarding food and supplies. In recent communiques, the Taliban have called the coronavirus “a decree of Allah” and have urged their followers to respond to it “in accordance with the teachings of the Holy Prophet”, including daily readings of the Quran, repenting and reciting prayers.
Al-Qaeda publications have described COVID-19’s spread in Muslim communities as “a consequence of our own sins and our distance from the divine methodology, [our widespread] obscenity and moral corruption”. The group has also instructed its followers to view the coronavirus as “a powerful tsunami” that has the potential to ruin the American economy. A recent article by al-Qaeda propagandists stressed that the group’s co-founder, Osama bin Laden, “would often inquire about the economic impact of the [September 11] attacks, unlike most others who would limit the discussion to casualties”, according to Johnson. She adds that al-Qaeda has called on its members to “turn this calamity into a cause for uniting our ranks, [because] now is the time to spread the correct Aqeedah [creed], call people to jihad in the Way of Allah, and revolt against oppression and oppressors”.
Meanwhile, Islamic State publications in countries such as India have been pointing out that, with soldiers and police officers “deployed in streets and alleys” during the coronavirus pandemic, jihadists have “easy targets”. Islamic State members are also being urged to “intensify the pressure” while national governments around the world are “preoccupied with protecting their countries”, something that will inevitably distract them in the coming weeks and months, writes Johnson.
In the United States the Department of Homeland Security, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the National Counterterrorism Center have issued several warnings regarding threats made by racially motivated violent extremists (RMVEs) in connection with the pandemic. The warnings state that RMVEs have discussed weaponizing the virus and using it to infect members of racial or ethnic minorities. Some white supremacist theorists have utilized online forums to discuss their hope that the responses to the pandemic by governments around the world “could crash the global economy, hasten societal collapse, and lead to a race war”. Other RMVE groups have been promoting conspiracy theories blaming ethnic and religious minorities —primarily Jews— for the coronavirus pandemic.
Al-Qaeda and ISIS have provided guidelines for their followers to prevent the spread of the illness, with al-Qaeda even highlighting in its message that “Islam is a hygiene-oriented religion,” but in addition to recognizing the threat posed by COVID-19, their messages also make it clear that both of these groups are savvy enough to utilize the global upheaval that may result from the spread of the pandemic to persuade more recruits to join their ranks, as well as to exploit the situation to plan and perform targeted attacks. Blaming the pandemic on the oppression of Muslims and on the decadence of the West, al-Qaeda has called on people, including those from the “Western World”, to use their time in self-isolation to convert to Islam. But the Islamic State has gone so far as to urge its followers to actively continue to wage global jihad and to take advantage of overburdened security capabilities to launch attacks.
With the lack of health infrastructure in the Sahel, combined with limited resources and otherwise poor health outcomes, including issues such as widespread malnutrition, the disease threatens to further destabilise these countries, which are already facing a serious humanitarian crisis triggered by ongoing armed conflict. With the further destabilization likely to result from the coronavirus pandemic come additional opportunities for groups operating in the Sahel, particularly Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), the al-Qaeda umbrella-affiliate, and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), the recognized Islamic State affiliate, to exploit vulnerabilities amongst local communities and gain support and strength to pursue their aims in the region.
Already, the number and lethality of attacks carried out in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have exponentially increased over the past year – Burkina Faso alone saw a 2150% increase in fatalities in terrorist attacks from 2018 to 2019. Their national governments are already under strain in seeking to combat the growing threat posed by not only terrorist groups, but by other armed groups, including self-defense militias and criminal enterprises.
According to ICCT Report “The Impact of Coronavirus on Terrorism in the Sahel”, these groups have already demonstrated their abilities to ingratiate themselves into local communities, often by providing services otherwise unavailable, including healthcare and security. As the resources of the Sahelian governments are increasingly burdened by the fight to counter COVID-19, their ability to provide basic services to local populations is likely to be even more strained. The opportunities that this scenario could provide to extremist groups should not be underestimated. This may be particularly true in the Sahel, where support for groups such as JNIM and ISGS is often separated from the groups’ ideological outlooks, tied rather to factors such as the groups’ ability to provide financial or security incentives to membership.
As the burden of the coronavirus pandemic spreads further and penetrates the countries of the Sahel more deeply, the potential for terrorist groups to continue to exploit weak points to gain support and strength will likely increase. It is vital that neither the domestic governments of the region, nor the international community turn their focus away from countering the threat that such groups pose. Continued cooperation and a broadened approach that addresses the underlying drivers of radicalisation towards violent extremism are necessary to stop the further spread of terrorist activity in the Sahel.
Right-wing terrorist groups are also looking to exploit the fear and chaos of the COVID-19 pandemic to advance their racist agenda.
The international terrorism expert Robert Pape at the University of Chicago where he directs the Chicago Project on Security and Terrorism, says law enforcement authorities need to urgently track and combat right-wing groups looking to “weaponize” the crisis.
He says that while Islamic groups like ISIS have been prolific in reacting to the COVID-19 crisis on social media, they have not been calling for attacks on Western nations or the United States specifically.
“Their approach has been to label and glorify the COVID-19 virus as an act of God that is essentially visiting the angel of death on the West,” said Pape. “This approach is likely to backfire in the coming months as many Muslims succumb in the Middle East, in Africa and parts of Asia.”
But right-wing white supremacist terror groups “are calling for weaponizing COVID-19 and we have already seen a plot to do so,” said Pape.
He noted the case of Timothy Wilson, a 36-year-old Missouri man who died on March 24 in a confrontation with the FBI. Wilson was alleged to have been in the final stages of a plot to blow up a hospital caring for COVID-19 patients.
According to Pape, one thing that needs to happen urgently is the increased tracking of right-wing groups by law enforcement and for political leaders to combat so-called alt-right propaganda predicting a breakdown of order.
“Our president, Gov. Pritzker, Mayor Lightfoot, should stress that law enforcement is not collapsing but strong and able to deal with whatever comes,” said Pape. “This would directly undermine much of the right-wing messaging that stresses that political order is breaking down.”
Another concern is the vulnerability of hospitals and grocery stores to attack, where security needs to be reassessed.
They are now the only places of mass gathering and people come to them on a regular and predictable basis,” said Pape. “Many hospitals have protection, they also have barriers, but supermarkets are a different story.
The Trump administration’s decision to fire Russell Travers, the acting director of the National Counterterrorism Center, set up after 9/11 to track and protect the nation from terrorist threats, was also unfortunate timing.
Travers, a 40-year government professional, was reportedly ousted for resisting attempts to cut staff at the center.
“This is an unfortunate time to weaken our national counterterrorism center,” said Pape. “At this moment in time with the COVID-19 virus, we have real issues that we want to track carefully — international groups as well as domestic groups — and this is what the National Counterterrorism Center does best. This is an unfortunate period of time to be going through any kind of change and much less any kind of downsizing of the National Counterterrorism Center.”
