For the last ten years China has been actively expanding in Central Asia, both geopolitically and geo-economically. Traditionally the region is significantly influenced by Russia and Turkey, and is considered strategically important by the EU and the United States as well. There are indicators that benefiting from the pandemic-caused crisis Beijing plans to increase its influence in the region.
On July 16, the Foreign Ministers of China + Central Asia (C + C5) hosted the first meeting via a video link. The meeting was presided by the member of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Kazakh Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tleuberdi, Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Chingiz Aidarbekov, Tajik Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin, Turkmen Vice-Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov, and Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov attended the meeting. Thus, representatives of all former-Soviet states from Central Asian region participated in the meeting.
Having an intention to strengthen its positions in all important areas China has come forward with the broad strategic proposal for the Central Asian states.
First of all, assistance to defeat the pandemic. The parties agreed to establish regular intercommunication between medical specialists and profile departments. This is particularly topical for Kyrgyzstan where the COVID-19 situation is difficult and uncontrolled. Chinese practical assistance will be in demand in every state of Central Asia, except for Turkmenistan.
Secondly, economic cooperation intensification. It involves mutual trade and ensuring food security, accelerating economy digitalization, increasing mutual trade volume, improving the trade infrastructure and deepening credit and investment cooperation. China expressed its readiness to support the Central Asian states in increasing their agricultural and processing potential, primarily, exporting high-quality and organic products to China. Despite the funds China has already invested in the agro-industrial complex of Central Asia, China is especially interested in natural resources such as energy, zinc, lead and gold.
We think that these framework statements will be followed by talks on specific projects and increase of Chinese investments flow into the Central Asian countries. At the same time, the idea of creation and development of industries focused on the needs of the Chinese market will prevail here.
Thirdly, transport and infrastructure projects. The participants discussed formation of a diversified system of transport and transit routes of communication, and creation of an integrated system of infrastructural interconnection. Here the parties also raised practical implementation of the PRC-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway construction project. Beijing also proposed to create an express corridor for the effective transportation of business and technical personnel, a “green corridor” for continual simplified cross-border freight traffic between countries. It is worth noting that the strategy to create a transport infrastructure to gain actual geo-economic control over the territory is actively used by China in Africa. There is a possibility that the same model will be actively applied in the countries of Central Asia.
Fourth, strengthening regional security and stability, including the socio-economic infrastructure restoration in Afghanistan. The issue of cooperation on combating terrorism, extremism and separatism was also mentioned. The topic is particular crucial for Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. It is worth noting that a China-funded border outpost of Tajik troops located in the Murghab region of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of Tajikistan, not far from the border with Afghanistan and the PRC, started working. The agreement between the governments of Tajikistan and China calls for the building of seven border outposts and training centers on the Tajik-Afghan border.
We believe that using its economic opportunities China will try to drive Russia out of the region very soon. The Kremlin’s wishes make no matter here because it cannot compete with Beijing in this direction, either financially or organizationally. Russia’s only chance to try to maintain its influence in the region is destabilizing the situation at specific areas and fueling popular “anti-Chinese” sentiments among the population that for a short time may prevent China from fast expansion.
