Russia is backing the re-election of Alpha Condé as President of Guinea. The extension of Condé’s presidency serves Moscow’s interests, similar cases of “zeroing” presidential terms adding to legitimize the powers of President Putin.
Guinea is due to hold a presidential election in 2020.
Condé was originally elected in 2010, becoming the country’s first democratically elected president after decades of authoritarian regimes. He was re-elected in 2015 and his opponents accuse him of a slide into authoritarianism.
Condé’s party, the Rally of the Guinean People (RPG), said on Monday that the 82-year-old Guinean leader had accepted the party’s nomination for the October elections.
The National Front for the Defense of the Constitution (FNDC) called Condé a “ferocious dictator”, describing a potential third term in office as “illegitimate” and criticizing the “cowardly” way the announcement was made, according to a communiqué shared on social media.
Condé enacted a new constitution in April following a referendum on changes to the text that was overwhelmingly backed by voters. Opposition figures attempted to organize a boycott of the referendum that was held alongside with parliament elections, but the vote went ahead despite protests.
Under the new constitution, presidential terms are also limited to two but extended from five years to six, which could theoretically enable Condé to govern for another 12 years.
Condé’s decision to seek a third term has sparked months of protest in Guinea, which the government has responded to with violent force. Since October of last year, 30 people in Guinea have been killed. Condé’s actions threaten to undermine democracy in Guinea and to revert Guinea back to the days of a repressive dictatorship which imposes its will on the people through brutal force.
Opposition parties in Guinea on September 1st, announced the restart of protests against a third term for President Alpha Condé, following the announcement of his candidacy by his party for polls expected on October 18.
The FNDC, a collective of political parties, trade unions and members of civil society, said in a statement on Tuesday that their movement against Condé’s third term had reached a “decisive phase”.
In the beginning of August, 2020, The Collective for the Transition in Guinea (CTG) filed a complaint against a set of activities that have taken place since 2012-2013 – partly in Paris, partly in Guinea – and which raise concerns about acts of corruption committed to the advantage of Alpha Condé, his son Mohamed Condé, but also the Minister of Defense Mohamed Diané”. According to released audio recordings, the mining company Rio Tinto paid Guinean government official and close acquaintance of the president François de Combret a sum of $10.5 million for mining rights in the Simandou mine. Perhaps, audio recordings do not implicate the president as there is no indication in it that he was not simply demanding down payment on the $700 million contract on behalf of the government with no payoff involved.
Condé’s ruling party is largely supported by Malinke, who make up 35 percent of the population and the bulk of the army. The opposition (Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea) led by Cellou Dalein Diallo is mostly backed by Fula, descendants of migrant Muslim herders who are Guinea’s largest ethnic group at about 40 percent.
Thus, Alpha Condé’s taking part in the elections and his probable victory through administrative pressure might trigger interethnic confrontation in the country.
Russia is throwing its weight behind Conde’s undeclared campaign.
Guinea is Africa’s largest producer of the main aluminium ore, bauxite. It also has significant reserves of iron ore, including the giant Simandou reserve, the largest known deposit of its kind with more than two billion tonnes of high-grade ore.
Russian mining companies are given advantages in country that gets third of its revenues from the sector.
Rusal owns the Kindia Bauxite Company (CBK), which accounts for a third of Rusal’s bauxite output, as well as the Dian-Dian Bauxite Company and the Friguia complex, which mines bauxite and refines it into alumina. Nordgold, another Russian company, owns a goldmine in northern Lefa, into which it is pumping ever-greater sums. Market participants claim, the Russians have a special status in Guinea. That explains the advantages given to their mining companies.
Russia’s blossoming relationship with Mr. Condé is an example of just how successful its muscular Africa policy can be.
On January 9, 2019, Alexander Bregadze, the former Russian Federation’s ambassador to the Republic of Guinea said: “constitutions are neither dogma, Bible, nor Quran“. He claimed: “Mr. President, you are a beacon to the youth of your country. Unfortunately, the principle of political succession, which dominates many constitutions in the world, not all happily, entrenches an attitude of payback: ‘It’s our turn now, we must run the country…”
A couple of month later, the United Co. Rusal, Russian aluminium producer company, named a controversial former ambassador Alexander Bregadze to Guinea to head its unit in the West African nation, raising local fears of Russian influence on next year’s presidential elections.
Emboldened by Russian backing, Mr. Condé has only cracked down harder. Last week, nine senior opposition figures were charged with insurrection. They face five years in prison. Given everything it has invested in Mr. Condé, Russia cannot risk the opposition coming to power.
