In mid-August, a Turkish and a Greek warship collided in the eastern Mediterranean, creating very strong tensions between the parties, the strongest since 1996. At first sight it seems only a dispute over the exploitation of natural gas resources in the waters of the Eastern Mediterranean. After the discovery of huge natural gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean 10 years ago, some of the countries in the area claimed their rights to offshore zones known as Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ). Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Egypt and Lebanon have begun to collaborate by excluding Turkey from any table. This decision is also formally based on the fact that Turkey itself is not a signatory to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea under which the EEZs are established. But Ankara has always maintained that Cyprus would not have the right to exploit gas resources until it reached an agreement with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC- Republic not recognized by the International Community). Or at least in areas where Cypriot Turks have the same rights as Cypriot Greeks on the new discoveries.
In the midst of the disputes between Ankara and Nicosia over the right of exploration, Turkey last year sent two drilling vessels, the Fatih and the Yavuz, escorted by Turkish Navy frigate TCG Gemlik to explore off Cyprus where Greek Cypriot authorities have already awarded hydrocarbon exploration rights to the Italian “Eni” and the French “Total”. Eni and Total hold licenses for seven of Cyprus ’13 blocks inside the island’s Economic Zone. Other licensed companies include ExxonMobil and Texas-based Noble Energy along with partners Shell and Israel’s Delek. Turkey claims that part of the area where Eni and Total are exploring falls within its own continental shelf.
The mission provoked Athene’s wrath and prompted Europe to impose light sanctions also for previous explorations by Turkey. It should be remembered that Israel, Cyprus and Greece had already decided to build a gas pipeline to transport natural gas from the eastern Mediterranean to Europe (via Italy) with the aim of decreasing European energy dependence on Russia.
Faced with an escalation of this nature, the United States has called for dialogue and mediation. But they actually stepped aside by delegating the role of mediator to Germany.
In November last year, Turkey signed a maritime agreement with the Libyan government of Serraj (the Libyan government recognized by the United Nations) that would allow an expansion of Turkish drilling in the eastern Mediterranean. Greece immediately opposed the agreement because it did not take into account the island of Crete which lies in the waters between Turkey and Libya. Meanwhile, Greece has made its choice of field in international politics by sending missiles and Patriot troops to Saudi Arabia and hosting General Khalifa Haftar, to provide diplomatic cover in a coordinated visit with Paris.
The agreement with Libya was a kind of pass for Turkey to intervene militarily in the Libyan conflict against the forces of General Haftar, supported militarily and economically by Russia, France, the Arab Emirates and Egypt against the Serraj government. The shift in the balance of forces on the ground has made Turkey emerge as a strong player and mediator on the battlefield in Libya. If the situation has changed in Serraj’s favor, it is a lot due to the intervention of pro-Turkish militiamen.
Just when Merkel’s mediation led Turkey to withdraw and temporarily suspend drilling in the region in July, Greece, with a curious timing, reached an agreement with Egypt on drilling rights for oil and gas in the area by developing a common maritime economic zone. Turkey claims that this EEZ is “null and void” because the two countries have no mutual maritime borders and because the agreement violated its EEZ with Libya. When Greece moved to ratify the agreement with Egypt and to establish a common maritime border, Ankara sent back its ships: the Oruc Reis energy exploration vessel along with its naval escort to search for oil and natural gas in the waters near the Greek island of Kastellorizo – waters that Athens claims as its maritime territory.
There are two other points to underline in the agreement between Greece and Egypt beyond the timing: the demarcation of the maritime border with Egypt is part of a Franco-Emirate plan to put pressure on Turkey in the Libyan conflict. Furthermore, the agreement with Egypt does not include the island of Kastellorizo, which is the excuse for the dispute with Ankara.
Russia is silent, also because the pipeline that will have to start from there towards Europe goes against its interests, but in fact it controls part of the eastern Mediterranean and part of the Black Sea. Greek media reported that the Russian Navy had assembled nine military ships between Cyprus and Syria, including three submarines. According to what is always reported by the Greek media, the UEA would have sent four F16s to Crete to participate in exercises with the Greek army.
Between accusations and various announcements Ankara and Athene have only raised the level of tension. Turkey announces new military exercises to be held off the northern coast of Cyprus and Greece announces navy exercises with France, Cyprus and Italy. Ankara has announced that it does not want to make any concessions on what belongs to it and Greece has announced that it would extend its maritime territory around some of its islands that are not involved in the controversy. Greece’s position is that it is entitled to its own continental shelf (including all islands) with exclusive drilling rights. The European Union supports Greece but with different attitudes from State to State. France, Greece and Cyprus are hard-line with Ankara. While Germany, Spain and Italy are in favor of mediation. France suggested extending the EU’s IRNI operation (IRNI should prevent the delivery of arms to both sides in Libya enforcing arms embargo) to Cyprus and sent military aid. France’s military deployment to Greece includes a frigate, an amphibious helicopter and two warplanes.
Faced with the many accusations against Erdogan’s “neo Ottoman” policy, for the first time the Republican People’s Party (CHP) supports Erdogan’s moves. In addition to longstanding grievances, the energy issue has great strategic importance for Turkey. Being a country poor in hydrocarbon resources, energy imports have always been a huge burden on the country’s economy, not to mention the complications in relations with Iran and Russia (countries on which Turkey depends most for its natural gas imports). The cost of energy imports last year was $ 43 billion, or 20% of all imports.
And in a situation of high tension between two NATO member countries, armed conflict must absolutely be avoided. This is where the role of the European Union comes into play. Germany’s crisis management and mediation could weaken in the face of military operations and policies of France along with Greece and Cyprus. The bloc has already disputed most of Turkey’s claims, including its agreement with Libya, which even Washington refuses to acknowledge. The sanctions should be discussed at the next EU summit on 24 September.
We must not neglect another fact that has passed almost unnoticed. Last month Erdogan announced a new natural gas discovery off the Black Sea coast. The discovery was estimated at 320 billion cubic meters. Clearly this significantly changes Turkey’s approach not only with Russia and Iran, but also in the face of Athene’s claims in the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey today is a strong regional power of 80 million with strong influence growth, has the second largest NATO army and second largest Air Force, and at some point it may feel compelled to protect its prestige. Honor, technical or human error could precipitate the situation. And this is what should be avoided.
It is clear that behind the conflict in the Eastern Mediterranean there is not only the exploitation of new energy resources for national needs, but there is the unresolved conflict of Cyprus, Libya, the interests of the various States, and the projection of power of the various actors. Ankara should not be able to do what it wants, but perhaps offering the carrot in addition to the stick could be the choice of the 24th of September. Perhaps sooner or later the United States would have to re-enter alongside Germany in order to play their historical role.
