The Trump administration did not live up to the Kremlin’s hopes to reach an agreement with Washington as for influence sphere division and sanctions pressure removal for Moscow’s actions violating international law, and committing acts of state terrorism worldwide. However, the Trump White House has gone to no extreme measures against Russia.
The newly elected US president can be greater challenge for Russia who is experiencing hard times of internal instability and elite discontent.
To the very end President Putin did not despair of the election results would be challenged. It is explained by the fact that he was one of the last ones who congratulated Joe Biden on his election victory, and announced his readiness to cooperate only after the members of the Electoral College had confirmed the victory of the new President of the United States on December 14.
Later on, the Kremlin picked the fight with the USA: the Trump administration had to admit that several US federal structures had been hacked that, in turn, led to the cyber attacks on the internal networks of departmental structures. In particular, we mean monitoring of internal email traffic at the Treasury Department, as well as the agency that decides Internet and Telecommunications Policy. Under President Obama’s rule, the White House officially declared that any cyber attack against the United States would be regarded as an act of war. Since then, Russia has attacked the United States several times. The latest attack proves that Moscow will not stop but intensify its subversive operations against the United States.
Russian government takes Biden’s victory as a bad sign. During his political career, Biden has learned the practice and variety of sanctions. Putin understands all the risks that the Biden administration poses to him. Therefore, Russia is highly likely to intensify its confrontation with Washington hoping to coerce Biden into a compromise.
However, it is doubtful that Joe Biden will raise an issue of lifting the current sanction imposed on Russia. More restrictions on official Moscow are expected to impose though. Biden has repeatedly stated that Russia is on the decline economically; it completely depends on energy prices and is unable to compete with the West. It creates conditions for imposing effective sanctions on particular sectors of the Russian economy.
After the election results being announced, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo officially accused Moscow and the Putin regime of undermining stability in Syria, Libya and other countries.
Putin might have the coldest relations with the US president during his entire career. Joe Biden witnessed the Cold War; he takes the current confrontation with the Kremlin as an echo of that very Cold War (confrontation between the White House and the Kremlin, the CIA and the KGB, NATO and the Warsaw Pact) that the United States must win. That is why he refers Russia to the key threat rather than China.
Biden believes that Russia intends to weaken Western countries from within, undermine the unity of NATO, the EU and the existing global order. He thinks that Russia is an aggressive revanchist force trying to resist the United States in the same way as the USSR.
Thus, it is extremely important for the new White House Administration to restore the integrity and unity of NATO as a collective equipoise to the chaos policy that Moscow is imposing on Europe.
Obviously, Washington will reconsider its Chinese political course. The deteriorating relations between Beijing and Washington played directly into Putin. However, the new Biden administration believes that China is a competitor rather than a threat, and it is ready to get along with the PRC. That is why it is more profitable and promising for China to establish cooperation with Washington than to follow a path of rapprochement with Moscow.
Previously, Joe Biden said that one should make Moscow pay for violations of international law and give an active support to the Russian civil society. Moscow has already reacted to his words and adopted a law restricting foreign donors to finance Russian non-profit organizations.
The new White House Administration is likely to take tougher measures as for Russia’s violation of bilateral arms control treaties. The IRNFT failed because of the Russian Federation’s actions violating the Treaty provisions. START is also on verge of termination due to the Kremlin’s policy. Joe Biden was one of the political figures engaged in disarmament problems in the 70-80s of the 20th century. This activity led to the conclusion of the INFT and START. In fact, Putin is breaking the agreements Biden as a senator worked on.
The Joe Biden administration cannot miss the fact that Putin is actively forming anti-Washington public opinion inside Russia in order to keep his power. According to the latest poll by Levada Center, 70% of Russians consider the United States as an enemy of their state. However, weakening support for Putin by his voters and local political elites opens favorable opportunities for unmaking the regime in Russia through negotiating with the ones who suffer losses caused by Russia’s expansion policy and its gross interference in the internal affairs of foreign states.
During the US election campaign, Russian state media tried to discredit Joe Biden by questioning his ruling ability. De facto, the Kremlin has intervened in the US election rally. The attempt to discredit Biden with the help of pro-Russian puppets in Ukraine puts on the agenda the issue of use of personal sanctions to break up the network of influence built by Russia to undermine US positions in Europe and conduct smear information campaigns.
