Haitian President Moïse is unlikely to step down over oppositional protests before the elections are held. His administration will continue to face pressure from public protests over worsening social and economic environment.
The Dessalinian Popular Movement (MOPOD) asked Hatians to rise up on Friday, January 15, against what they consider as a corrupt and illegitimate regime, and then reach a political agreement with separate sectors that will lead to stability.
However, if President Moïse were to resign or be forced from office, the Haitian Constitution calls for the legislature to meet within 60 days to elect a new provisional president for the remainder of his term. Currently, there is no functioning legislature. On March 4, 2020, President Moïse swore in a new prime minister, Joseph Jouthe, whom Moïse appointed by decree.
In recent months Haiti has seen a resurgence of kidnappings for ransom that indiscriminately target both the wealthy and the majority living below the poverty line.
As the political situation in Haiti has deteriorated, the role of the baz (base) — the armed groups in the country’s most impoverished quarters acting as a kind of netherworld of neighborhood protector, tax collector, muscle for political interests and freelance criminal — has grown to ever more powerful levels.
The baz are descendants of other irregular paramilitary forces in Haitian history — from the zinglin of the mid-1800s rule of Faustin Soulouque to l’armée souffrante of the renegade general Louis-Jean-Jacques Acaau to the Tontons Macoutes of dictator François Duvalier.
Haiti’s election periods are known to be marred by violence and political instability, so there is a possibility that the security situation could further worsen over the coming months. The protests will also be fueled by Haiti’s severe economic crisis, ongoing fuel shortages, and general insecurity. The abductions, and the stranglehold of armed gangs on a number of areas throughout the capital Port-au-Prince and the provinces, are all threats to secure elections.
Opposition groups in Haiti, including the Secteur Democratique et Populaire, plan to hold several nationwide protests starting Jan. 15 and continuing through at least early February. The protests aim to denounce the country’s recently announced electoral calendar and demand President Jovenal Moise step down by Feb. 7. The date commemorates the 35 years since the end of the dictatorship and the day the president regularly takes up office.
Demonstrations have specifically been called for Jan. 15 and 20. Organizers have also called for the start of spontaneous demonstrations from Jan. 22 and the start of a nationwide civil disobedience campaign, including protest blockades, from Feb. 1. Given there is no evidence to suggest that Moise will step down by Feb. 7, the protests are highly likely to persist.
Police will probably deploy in force near all large protests, especially in Port-au-Prince. The protests carry an elevated threat of clashes. Protesters could attempt to block roads, burn vehicles, and vandalize private businesses during any protests that materialize.
According to the electoral calendar published by Haiti’s Provisional Electoral Council (CEP), a controversial constitutional referendum will take place April 25, and the first round of the presidential and legislative will be held Sept. 19, with the second round scheduled for Nov. 21, along with the local and municipal polls. So, Moïse intends to continue with his one-man rule for months to come, defying the U.S. and Organization of American States.
Traditional and opposition parties have insisted on Moise’s replacement by a three-year transitional government while highlighting that his term in office ends on Feb. 7, 2021, and not in February 2022 as he proclaims.
Moïse, however, has already dismissed his ouster in near future and reiterated that 2021 is a crucial year for Haiti, which will face elections and constitutional change.
A referendum to approve a new Constitution will take place in April while presidential, legislative, municipal, and local elections will be held in September and November. Opposition parties considered the referendum invalid because the 1987 Constitution prohibits its modification through popular consultation. They also call for a three-year transitional government to replace Moïse and later organize general elections.
Moïse insists on constitutional reforms to include the abolition of the Senate, the removal of a ban on dual nationality, and the acceptance of diaspora lawmakers.
The opposition also rejected Moïse’s appointment of CEP representatives, claiming they were chosen without a political agreement and are members of the ruling party.
Legislative and regional elections were supposed to be held in 2018 but they were postponed due to the regime’s foot-dragging and protests demanding President Jovenel Moïse’s resignation.
The government’s failure to hold elections in October 2019 resulted in the terms of most of the Haitian legislature expiring on January 13, 2020, without officials elected to succeed them. Moïse is now ruling by decree. The judiciary is conducting ongoing investigations into Moïse’s possible involvement in various corrupt activities, which the president denies. Haitian Senate and Superior Court of Auditors investigations allege embezzlement and fraud by current and former Haitian officials managing $2 billion in loans from Venezuela’s PetroCaribe discounted oil program.
In September 2019 after the government’s announcement that it would eliminate fuel subsidies, widespread civil unrest has effectively paralyzed Haiti. Thousands of protesters seeking to oust President Jovenel Moïse attacked businesses and government buildings across Haiti, creating chaos on the streets after a weekslong shutdown of vital services that has damaged the country’s ailing economy and shaken the president’s already tenuous position. The President was accused that his allies had embezzled and wasted billions in proceeds from a Venezuelan program to aid Haiti with subsidized oil. Those protests have been followed by strikes and violent demonstrations as the government has proved unable to import enough fuel to meet the nation’s daily needs.
Moise has been governing by presidential decree since Jan. 20, 2020, when the terms of all deputies and 20 senators expired.
Opposition politicians immediately rejected the CEP’s announcement of a Constitutional referendum and general elections this year. Former Sen. Youri Latortue, head of the Haiti in Action party (AAA), described the proposed electoral process as “unserious” and “absurd,” while reiterating the calls on President Jovenel Moise to resign.
The Struggling People’s Organization (OPL) and the Democratic and Popular Sector (SDP) described the CEP’s attempts to establish new political reality as a “comedy” while announcing general strikes.
Since the fall of the Duvalier dictatorship in 1986, Haiti has struggled to overcome its centuries- long legacy of authoritarianism, disrespect for human rights, underdevelopment, and extreme poverty. Widespread corruption remains an impediment to changing that legacy.
Almost 60% of the country’s 10 million people live in poverty, and almost a quarter of them live in extreme poverty. Haiti is still recovering from the devastating 2010 earthquake, as well as Hurricane Matthew in 2016. The latter worsened a process begun by a two-year drought, destroying much of Haiti’s food supply.
Moïse is now ruling by decree. As of January 13, 2020, the terms of the entire lower Chamber of Deputies and two-thirds of the Senate expired (as did the terms of all local government posts), without newly elected officials to take their places. Consequently, there is currently no functioning legislature. Previously, when the legislature’s terms expired in January 2015 because the government had not held elections, then-President Michel Martelly ruled by decree for over a year, outside of constitutional norms. As evidenced by the current situation, organizing elections often has proven difficult in Haiti, leading to long delays, periods without an elected legislature or president, and heightened political tensions.
