The election in El Salvador confirmed fears that there will soon be few checks left to rein in Bukele’s authoritarian drift. The danger at this moment is the functioning of democratic institutions.
Populist President Nayib Bukele appeared to have won control of El Salvador’s unicameral congress, ending a two-year standoff with legislators of the old parties that have dominated politics in the Central American country since the end of the 1980-1992 civil war.
El Salvador’s the conservative National Republican Alliance party and the leftist Farabundo Marti Liberation Front — are trying to keep their hold on congress and other key positions, which they have maintained since the end of the civil war.
Bukele has labeled critics traitors and attacked independent media. He has ignored rulings by the five-member Constitutional Court against his strict coronavirus quarantines. Last year he has ignored Supreme Court rulings against his policies and once sent armed soldiers into Congress, where until now he has held only a few seats, to pressure the opposition to back a crime-fighting plan.
Before elections Bukele has blamed congress for blocking his efforts in everything from controlling crime to managing the coronavirus pandemic. He made the parliament as a foe of the people, that impedes popular president’s efforts to improve the situation in the country.
Salvadorian President Nayib Bukele now looks set to forge ahead demonizing the opposition and undermining his country’s young democratic institutions. Bukele’s trajectory echoes what has already happened in Nicaragua and Honduras, where elections have consolidated power for autocratic forces – and could do so again in El Salvador.
Preliminary results from the legislative and municipal elections in El Salvador suggest that the ruling New Ideas party will be the main political force in this country. With only one-fourth of the votes counted, the party would have 66.17 percent of the votes for the Legislative Assembly, which would allow it to have 56 legislators even without the need of alliances. The conservative party known as ARENA currently holds 37 of the 84 seats in congress and controls 138 of the 262 municipal councils, while the leftist FMLN holds 23 congressional seats and 64 townships.
This number would allow President Nayib Bukele’s party to veto or approve any initiative without the need to negotiate with the opposition in the 2021-2024 Legislature, which will begin on May 1st .
Without opposition in the legislature, there are few guarantees that increased spending would come with any real transparency.
Some election-watchers expressed concern that the lopsided results could undermine the country’s institutions and the President creates a democratic worry that El Salvador loses a balance of powers.
Authorities detected multiple violations of the so-called ‘electoral silence’ by the ruling party, and opened a sanctioning process. This legislative and local elections in El Salvador are seen as a referendum on whether to break the congressional deadlock that has tied the hands of upstart populist President Nayib Bukele.
He is a son of a Muslim father from Bethlehem, who was a driving force behind the construction of some of the first mosques in Latin America. Bukele started working for his father’s firm, which at that time was engaged in promotion work for the FMLN, El Salvador’s traditional leftist party, formerly a guerrilla group.
However, he changed it for a Gran Alianza por la Unidad Nacional (GANA), a party that carried a string of corruption cases in its wake but that was able to provide him with the electoral registration he required before he could legally formalize his own platform, Nueva Ideas. Nuevas Ideas did not exist when Salvadorans last voted for the Legislative Assembly, in 2018. But GANA became his platform’s ally in parliament.
New Ideas is popular because “in the 30 years of government under old parties, the people have not seen improvements in their lives. Neither FMLN, nor ARENA, were unable to tackle escalating gang violence. Both ARENA former president Antonio Saca and FMLN’s Funes have faced charges of embezzling millions of dollars, earning the former a 10-year jail sentence.
Bukele is a fan of video games and a lover of luxury and expensive cars. In the state with 29.3% of population in poverty, such hobbies do not fit the image of corruption-fighter and point at Bukele’s authoritarian background.
He has positioned himself as a messianic figure, a savior against diabolical enemies of the people, most saliently, the FMLN, he started his political career from. His government assumed an authoritarian populist character, driven by publicity, militarism, and conflict.
Two years ago, Bukele sent heavily armed soldiers to surround the congress during a standoff over security funding, earning rebukes internationally.
With a majority in the Legislative Assembly, Bukele’s party would not only be able to advance the president’s agenda, but also name justices to the Supreme Court — another Bukele obstacle — as well as magistrates to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, the attorney general, the prosecutor for the defense of human rights and others. Essentially his party could replace his loudest critics.
While New Ideas wins a congressional majority, El Salvador would lose that brake on the exercise of power from the legislature when legality or constitutionality is exceeded, (and) that brakes any attempted abuse, any arbitrary act that the executive wants to commit.
It would deepen the authoritarianism of the government Bukele leads.
This election will mark the end of a governing class based on classicSalvadorian parties. It will be replaced by a new governing class that doesn’t come from any political party, but comes from the guts of society.
However it will also deepen political conflict between government and opposition. The situation ruins bridges between them in El Salvador and there is no way back.
Although Bukele is a legitimate, democratically elected president with solid majority backing, his authoritarian tendencies and weakening of any checks on his power is of great concern.
The rule of law in the Northern Triangle is one of the top priorities for the Western Hemisphere. So, as Bukele amasses power though, El Salvador is a serious problem for the Biden administration.
This should come as a warning for opponents of populism elsewhere in Latin America: voters are unlikely to turn out to defend institutions when they believe institutions have only failed them.
