The developments in Chad Republic have signs of a military coup after the newly re-elected President Idriss Déby has died of wounds he received while commanding his army in battles against rebels in the western Kanem Province.
Despite the legal way of power transition, the constitution has been suspended. The government and parliament have been dissolved.
A military council will take over in the interim, under the leadership of General Mahamat Kaka, otherwise known as Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, the son of Idriss. This temporary government should remain in place for 18 months.
Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno (as his father from Zaghawa tribe) has been a general in the Chadian army and for many years headed the Direction Générale des Services de Sécurité des Institutions de l’État (DGSSIE) [General Directorate of Security Services for State Institutions], which includes the presidential guard. The four-star general was not on any list of heirs to the throne.
Over recent months the unity of the Zaghawas has fractured and the president has removed several suspect officers.
Mahamat has a reputation for discretion and shunning the limelight, unlike some of his Half-brothers. He is a battle-hardened soldier like his father. However, Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno is too young and not especially liked by other officers, so there are risks of a next military coup overturning him.
Mahamat will save the support of France and border states if he keeps on fighting jihadism in the region.
The Zaghawa community look with some suspicion on Mahama because he married a Goran tribe (as his mother), the daughter of a senior official who was close to former president Hissene Habre, ousted by Idriss Déby in 1990. So, Mahamat couldn’t count on a powerful clan support. Opposition politicians in Chad have already rejected the army’s appointment of Déby’s son. The things are getting worse, as the rebels are known to be dominated by the Gorane community, so Mahamat’s leadership in Chad could be questioned by Zaghawa’s elders.
So, the Déby’s death could trigger political turmoil in the vast semi-arid country with a long history of rebellions and coup attempts. The worst-case scenario for Chad is Libya type of disintegration, in highly insecure and conflict affected region.
