The outcome of the meeting between the US Secretary of State Blinken and Foreign Minister Lavrov in Reykjavik, Iceland, casts a long shadow on the Kremlin’s outlook for ramming down a reboot of relations with Washington on its own terms and without any commitments.
Moscow viewed that meeting as a test for Washington’s narrative, prior to a possible meeting of U.S. President Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, and Russia-U.S. summit.
The United States and Russia do not see eye to eye on the concept of dialogue and cooperation. While it is adherence to international law for the U.S., Russia believes it is unconditional recognition of imperial ambitions and world repartition, when a significant part of Europe comes under Moscow’s hand, and the Kremlin restores the Soviet era influence in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken says he wants to have a more predictable, stable relationship with Russia, and he tested that proposition during a 90-minute conversation with Russia’s foreign minister.
Russian narrative aims to chaotize international relations and roil some countries in the world, thus providing the agenda on a global political scale for Russia. Russia is unable to suggest scenarios for global change. The focus on constant global hegemony (within the Soviet borders) and the need for cultural colonies require it to stick to the policy of aggression and pressure. As those targets require financing, Moscow has no way of improving its own people’s wellbeing and cannot fight for leadership in addressing global challenges.
The meeting outcome evaluation by the State Department is a far cry from that by Russia’s Foreign Ministry.
As Russia highlights “constructive proposals” for “debris removal” that have emerged, the United States put emphasis on Blinken’s commitment to support the allies, protect American people and make Russia face the consequences of its crimes. Blinken trumpeted President Biden was determined to guard American national interests and thwart the Kremlin’s activity that threatened the interests of allied countries. The message by Blinken gives Kremlin no ammunition to hope that relations between the United States and Russia can improve, unless Moscow undergoes a 180-degree turn. Blinken in particular highlighted the recent build-up of Russian troops on Ukraine’s border and also called for the release of two Americans – Paul Whelan and Trevor Reed – in Russians jails, who have been charged with espionage.
The Russian Foreign Ministry, in its press release, turned a blind eye on all the caveats and warnings by the Americans, thus indicating Moscow has missed Blinken’s message.
But Putin, confined to his operation code, cannot go for compromise. That means the Kremlin will keep on escalating and will cross the line, followed by full-scale sanctions, triggering a deep crisis in Russia. That is why Lavrov-Blinken meeting in Reykjavik echoes the historical meeting in the same city in 1986, followed by the Soviet breakup 5 years later.
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Robert Lansing Institute Director General, former DRM imagery analyst, Paris-based analyst in intelligence
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