We should not expect too much from President Biden’s first trip to Europe to meet with allies and Russian President Putin. And that is a good thing. After four years of President Trump trying to bully US allies and befriend Putin, the US has little to show for it.
Like Trump, Biden is a believer in personal diplomacy, and hopes to use his numerous contacts among world leaders, and decades of experience in Washington to rebuild trust among US allies and set expectations with Russia. Biden has met Putin many times before and understands that “negotiating” with Putin is a fruitless endeavor.
Putin’s two-decade rule has shown that he has no interest in improving relations with the US or seeking win-win outcomes. He has chosen a foreign policy of confrontation, subversion and sabotage. Learning from his Soviet predecessors, Putin also knows that placing blame on foreign adversaries provides the domestic benefit of having scapegoat to blame for his economic and political failures, and provides justification to repress domestic opponents as a threat to the state.
Instead, Biden is likely to seek accord on the few issues of clear mutual interest, to include Arms Control, proliferation and regional instability in places like Iran and Afghanistan. He may aim to end the diplomatic war of attrition and find a way to re-staff Embassies in Moscow and Washington.
At the same time, Biden’s larger objective is to re-engage with allies and stabilize relations with Russia so that the west can focus on domestic economic growth and engagement with China. While Biden understands that real improvement of relations with Russia is unlikely, he nonetheless will likely set clear red lines related to Russia’s interference in US elections, cyber-attacks and ongoing efforts to subvert democracy.
However, unless these threats are followed by strong action, they are unlikely to have much impact on Putin. Biden has had harsh words before with Putin while serving as President Obama’s Vice President, and there is little evidence that Putin changed his tune. Putin rules over a corrupt government and stagnant economy that has failed to meet the COVID crisis, and is having trouble providing a vision for his younger citizens. He has few allies internationally, and has been forced to murder and jail opponents and buy-off cronies to insure continued rule. His only superpower is the power of disruption, and he is unlikely to give it up.
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov commented that the summit should seek to remove “irritants” between the US and Russia. However, the irritants in the relationship are almost all due to Russia’s malign actions over the past decade. Even in the run-up to the summit, Russia has interfered in the 2020 election and continued spreading damaging disinformation, sought to murder its citizens at home and throughout Europe, engaged in cyber-attacks against the US government and companies, and likely used directed-energy weapons to inflict harm on US diplomats. In such an atmosphere, the onus to improve relations lies with Putin alone. Biden cannot offer meaningful concessions or take action to change Putin’s long-held grievances. As Robert Kaplan noted in a piece for “The Bulwark”, “Better relations with Putin are only possible if we sacrifice our values, our interests and other countries in the process.” Additionally, to appease Putin in such a scenario risks merely strengthening Putin’s view that the west is weak, unfocused and corruptible. (Indeed, even the seemingly simple “win” of re-staffing Embassies would be a concession since the drawdown was a response to clear Russian election interference.)
The central objective of US policy toward Russia is to contain Putin’s belligerent behavior abroad. While improved relations and increased cooperation are always welcome, we’ve had over 20 years to watch Putin. He is invested in an adversarial relationship with the west and will not change. However, Biden can make US intentions clear, and attempt to regularize day-to-day diplomacy away from President Trump’s use of diplomacy as personal theater.
So, if the outcome of the summit is boring, consider it a win.
Read also: The Russia Question
