The death of Abubakar Shekau means that the Islamic State could concentrate in the region the military capabilities and improve public image by increasing terrorist group recruits. Moreover, we expect that in case of effective personnel management, Islamic States will reduce tensions within Boko Haram that makes it more dangerous and well-coordinated.
ISIS stands behind the death of Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau who was killed because of publicly concerns about indiscriminate targeting of ‘believers’. In fact, he was eliminated as a competitor. The operation against Shekau was launched on the direct orders of the leadership of ISIS in the Middle East.
According to a Nigerian intelligence report shared by a government official Shekau is dead. Thus, the region could face the empowering the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) that will monopolize the violence power in the region. Shekau’s death will put an end to a rivalry between the Boko Haram and ISWAP and thereby enabling ISWAP to absorb Boko Haram fighters, consolidate its hold on territory in northeastern Nigeria and to focus on the Nigerian government and military as a target.
In 2015, Shekau pledged loyalty to the Islamic State, and Boko Haram was rebranded as IS-WA. An ensuing leadership dispute fractured the group; “core” IS leadership recognized another IS-WA leaderAbu Musab al-Barnawi, and Shekau’s faction reassumed the group’s original name. Shekau remains the Boko Haram leader, while IS-WA has undergone a series of leadership changes. A third, smaller faction that operates near Lake Chad, has reportedly allied with Shekau.
Back in August 2016, ISIS’ former “caliph” Abubakar al-Baghdadi personally ordered Shekau’s ejection from ISWAP due to Shekau’s power excesses, including using hundreds of girls in suicide bombing operations that caused deaths of Muslim civilians.
Today after Boko Haram Abubakar Shekau assassination ISWAP seeks to take over Shekau faction’s bases in Nigeria.
Last year, the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) publicly estimated that IS-WA had around 3,500-5,000 fighters, primarily operating in northeast Nigeria near Lake Chad and on Niger-Cameroon frontier zone.
With the potential collapse of Shekau Boko Haram faction, ISWAP will be less distracted from implementing its civilian-centric insurgency strategy. Some portion of Shekau’s remaining faction could defect to ISWAP and make the group more dangerous and strengthening the insurgency.
Abubakar Shekau, an ethnic Kanuri born in Yobe state, was the Boko Haram first leader after the group organized an insurgency that has started in Nigeria and subsequently spread to Niger, Cameroon, and Chad in early 2010. Being approved by al-Qaeda a faction called Ansaru broke away from him in 2012.
According to ISWAP, after its fighters and some Shekau faction collaborators invaded Shekau’s bases in Sambisa, Borno State in May, Shekau killed himself by detonating explosives rather rather than being captured by ISWAP.
ISWAP hoped Shekau to pledge his loyalty to the Islamic State, and bring his fighters under ISWAP’s authority voluntarily. He wanted to submit to ISWAP leadership, but believed that ISWAP leaders had deceived core Islamic State into recognizing their leadership of the group, bypassing his authority. Now some of Shekau’s fighters in Sambisa have joined ISWAP and are relieved to be free from the whims of his capricious command, and especially his brutality. Shekau’s highest ranking commander in the Lake Chad region (Shekau’s stronghold) is still fighting against ISWAP, including abducting the group’s family members, in order to avenge Shekau’s death. The faith of Shekau’s Cameroon-based fighters is unknown.
If Shekau’s faction is unable to put forth a strong successor, the group will likely dissolve. According to this scenario, hundreds of roving and marauding fighters would likely join ISWAP.
ISWAP is seeking to consolidate in Sambisa. It makes ISWAP a key player throughout Borno. The only exception here is Lake Chad positioning itself as a contested region with the remnants of Shekau’s faction.
Shekau’s death will allow ISWAP to keep focusing on attacks against Nigeria’s army while distinguishing ISWAP from Shekau’s methods among civilians through its civilian-centric insurgent strategy. This strategy’s main proponent, Abu Musab al-Barnawi, Muhammed Yusuf’s (Boko Haram founder) son, was reconfirmed as ISWAP’s leader only days before Shekau’s death.It is unlikely that the Nigerian military will change its counterinsurgency strategy as a result of the confrontations between ISWAP and Shekau’s faction following his death. Nevertheless, the Nigerian military is faced with two key challenges: ISWAP is more militarily capable than Shekau’s faction, and it is more focused on mobilizing civilian support than Shekau was. ISWAP’s ability to win recruits and gain local support is what ultimately makes it a greater challenge to Nigeria’s army than Shekau’s faction could ever have been with him and leading the group.
Read also: Perspectives of Jihadism in Africa
