Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) in Somalia has received approximately 45 million Dollar budget cut from the European Union this year, and while the Trump Administration had announced the withdrawal of US troops from Somalia, the Biden Administration had not reversed it.
Several political analysts in the Horn of Africa (HoA) have written their opinion on how a withdrawal from Somalia is a bad idea. Even after amounting pressures, the Biden Administration has not reversed this decision. Instead, the US has shifted its strategy by sending troops to Kenya. There are two main reasons for this move. The Biden Administration is developing a tougher stance on countering terrorism in Somalia and Ethiopia’s internal armed conflict in Tigray.
In more than 10 years, the US government has funded millions of dollars to fight terrorism, help alleviate the humanitarian crisis caused by conflict, droughts, flooding, and poor governance in Somalia, however there has not been much progress. In fact, Somalia’s governance and humanitarian portfolio has been described as 3-steps forward,2-steps back. This is one reason why the Biden Administration has re-defined its strategy to locate troops in Kenya.
The second reason is the conflict in Tigray. Ethiopia has been reported to have grave violations against human rights, mass killings, and some even described it as ethnic cleansing. The Tigray constitute the fourth largest ethnic group in the country after the Oromo, Amhara and Somali, who also speak Afro-Asiatic languages. Tigrays have a rich culture, heritage, and history. The current conflict will not only change the demographics, but also destroy the rich heritage Tigray contribute to Ethiopia.
The current Ethiopian government has also developed stronger relations with Somalia and Eritreia, making it a further threat to smaller states in the region. Who’s to say Ethiopia won’t attack Somaliland or Djibouti next, depending on the political threat they pose to its allies or its power in the region? This would further tilt the power dynamics in the HoA.
Kenya is politically favorable to the West. Yes, the levels of corruption in Kenya is staggering and often gets in the way of development, however Ethiopia is an authoritarian government with strict regulations on freedom of speech, press, and association. When it comes to democratization, the later is far worse than the former.
Here are some of the pros and cons in the US shift in strategy in countering terrorism:
Pros:
- Securing the Kenyan borders: Locating US troops to Kenya means securing Kenyan borders and pushing back on Al-Shabaab attempts to attack and recruit from Somali-ethnic and Muslim dominated Counties and refugee camps. Data and reports warn that VEO will invest in on-the-ground and online recruitment, as well as expanding their supporters and sympathizers through disseminating propaganda on social media. Within Kenya, it is highly likely that there will be less terrorist attacks
- Securing the Region: With US troops moving to Kenya, there is a high potential that Kenya could become the hub of diplomacy and security in East Africa; attracting foreign investments and Presidential visits from powerful states.
- Containing the Conflict in Ethiopia: The grave violations of human rights in the Tigray conflict is alarmingly high and has shocked the world. Sending troops to Kenya is the American government’s attempt to contain the conflict and Ethiopia’s political power in the region.
- Enhanced Cyber-intelligence: With more VE efforts focused on recruiting online ad disseminating false propaganda and misinformation on social media platforms, Kenya will have the opportunity to train and enhance its cyber-security. This will further add to the education sector, where Degrees in Cyber-security Intelligence and Information Security could become n available and population option for students. Professional and military trainings in cyber-security are also fields Kenya is likely to benefit from exploring.
- Development in Tech Industry in East Africa: The tech market in Kenya, at the moment, focuses on service-delivery apps and gadgets. Although this is good, developing apps and gadgets for at-home healthcare provision for the disabled and elderly, the use of drones medical aid delivery and disaster-relief efforts, online education platforms for rural areas, and effective telecommunication (internet) services is also crucial.
Cons:
- ‘Big Brother’ syndrome: Kenya believes it is big brother to states in East Africa. The sending of US troops means that Kenya will further meddle in the political and economic affairs of smaller states, therefore, undermining their sovereignty and self-determination.
- Kenya becoming a target in the region: More than meddling in the affairs of smaller states, Kenya is likely to face greater security threats from VEO and violent non-state actors. This means that groups like Al-Shabaab will work harder on their recruitment and terror attack strategies. The second issue is the US troops meddling in the political affairs of states like Ethiopia, and Kenya facing negative repercussions because of that. An example would be the American bases located in Qatar and UAE authorizing US fighter jets to fly from their airports during the 2003 war on Iraq.
- Strengthening Al-Shabaab: The VEO could gain more supporters and sympathizers with its online propaganda and rhetoric that the US troops are supporting KDF to attack Muslims.
