A group of former ministers from neighboring countries (Slovenia, Croatia, Albania, Kosovo, Bosnia, Serbia) sent a letter to the European institutions and NATO asking them to start a “political dialogue with all the different political and social actors in Montenegro”. Among the signatories of the letter, there is also the former Croatian vice premier, Vesna Pusic, who reviews scenarios of the 90s. “The stakes are very high” – says Pusic,- “this situation is a very worrying conflict that could lead to a clash between the Russian Federation and the European Union”.
The situation in Montenegro became hot three weeks ago when police violently repressed a patriotic demonstration that exploded to challenge the installation of the new patriarch of the Orthodox Church, installed from Belgrade. The ceremony took place in the historic city of Cetinje, which was once the capital of independence.
In recent months, even more, violent clashes had always erupted over religious issues. But the tensions between the pro-Russian and the patriotic component are continuing.
In 2016, a coup d’état was thwarted, in which Russian intelligence agents were involved in order to prevent the country’s entry into NATO. Two agents of the Main Directorate of Russian Intelligence (GRU), Eduard Shirokov and Vladimir Popov, were identified. Both were sentenced in absentia in May 2019.
In these hours, tension is also high on the border between Serbia and Kosovo, where there is an escalation of military forces. Here too, geopolitics signals sparks between a pro-Russian and a pro-Western country.
But the activity of the Russian services in the Balkans in recent years has been intense.
Read also: Russian influence in the Western Balkans
In March 2021, Bulgarian authorities said they had disbanded a Russian spy network that was gathering information on NATO, the CIA, Ukraine and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. A Sofia military court has decided to hold five of the network’s in custody. The sixth one was released on bail after working with the authorities. In addition, Bulgaria expelled two Russian diplomats, accusing them of spying in relation with the case.
“What we see in Bulgaria is a pattern of Russian behavior where they try to undermine our democratic institutions, try to interfere in domestic politics and are stepping up within the intelligence domain,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said.
Bulgaria joined NATO in 2004 and the EU in 2007. In recent years, it has expelled several Russian diplomats for alleged espionage, including gathering information on the number of US troops in the country.
But Moscow continues to exert strong influence on internal affairs and intelligence agencies.
On September 24, 2020, two Russian diplomats suspected of spying on the Bulgarian army were appointed persona non grata.
In January 2020, two Russian diplomats were deported, although Anatoliy Markov, then Russia’s ambassador, complained that he had not been officially informed of the allegations.
Earlier, in September 2019, Nikolay Malinov, the leader of a pro-Russian NGO, the Russophile National Movement, was accused of espionage.
At the same time, a former senior Russian intelligence officer, Leonid Reshetnikov, was barred from entering Bulgaria.
Another previous case involving Russia was the poisoning of firearms dealer Emilian Gebrev, allegedly with an agent Novichok in April 2015, although this was never confirmed. The issue remains unresolved.
Three Russian nationals, who had entered Bulgaria under false names and forged documents, were suspected in the case, but in September 2020, Gebrev claimed that his probes had disappeared from a laboratory for verification and analysis of chemical weapons in Finland. The prosecution then distanced itself from the case.
In July 2018, Greece expelled two Russian diplomats accused of trying to undermine the historic agreement between Athens and Skopje to end decades of name disputes. The Greek government accused them of “interference”, or more precisely of fomenting opposition to the agreement, signed earlier that year, by encouraging nationalist protests against it.
At the same time, the Prime Minister of Northern Macedonia, Zoran Zaev, pointed the finger at a Greek-Russian businessman for paying Macedonian Slav nationalists to attack the Prespa Agreement.
The accord between Greece and Macedonia opened the doors for Skopje to join NATO. The Prime Minister of North Macedonia Zoran Zaev denounced the fact that “Greek businessmen” sympathetic to Russia had paid some groups of Macedonians to commit acts of violence in view of the referendum on the agreement.
Moscow agents do not joke even with the most loyal allies. In September 2019, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic claimed possession of a video in which Russian Lieutenant Colonel, Georgy Kleban, exchanged money for confidential documents with a Serbian defense ministry’ official.
The Belgrade president stated that he had identified ten other contacts between Russian agents and Serbian officials.
In one of the last episodes, in June 2021, the Albanian media reported that two Russian citizens, Georg Budanov and Vladislav Cherkasov, are under investigation by the Tirana Prosecutor’s Office for suspicions related to Russian espionage. Investigators link their activity to “Defender Europe”, one of NATO’s largest military exercises in Europe.
Moscow sees the Western Balkans as a fragile border of the European Union and mobilizes its network of agents to prevent or at least slow down, the process of joining the countries of this area to NATO and joining the Union. Unlike other areas, in the Balkans Russia cannot intervene militarily.
That is why Moscow gives deep importance to the situation in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia and Kosovo, striving to exert considerable influence on events in Serbia, the Serbian-dominated part of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia and Montenegro. Due to historical and cultural relationships, these countries are said to be the most exposed to the Russian pressure.
The human network of espionage, tied informants and Moscow and Russian agents, is only one of the tools to extend the Kremlin’s sphere of influence in the Western Balkans.
Some time ago, referring to Serbia’s negotiations with the EU for membership, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov threw this not-so-veiled threat: “The most important thing is that, in developing its ties with potential members , the EU abandon the absolutely harmful and destructive logic of forcing them to make a choice: either with Russia or with the EU. As we know, this ultimatum has already led to the deep crisis of Ukrainian statehood … “
The Western Balkans region is now where the hybrid war between Russia and the West takes place, without military troops being involved.
Although most of these operations are handled by the GRU, the Chief Information Directorate, which is the intelligence service of the Russian Armed Forces with its own special forces. The GRU was founded in 1918 by Lenin.
