The news headlines were recently full of dramatic phrases connected to drills conducted by the Chinese aircraft in proximity to Taiwan. This was not the first time that such exercises were held, but most certainly these were the biggest ones. Let’s take a closer look and try to understand the whole situation without the unneeded media hype.
What has actually happened?
Starting with the 30th of September and ending on the 4th of October, China has launched a series of sorties towards the sea, surrounding Taiwan. The air component was usually a mixed batch of aircraft of various types and the exact numbers and dates can be found in Taiwan MoD Twitter handle or with more comprehensive data on their website. On the 5th of October, we could observe a single aircraft, and on the 10the yet another breach of the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) was conducted.
The aircraft sent by China have resembled strike packages consisting of machines needed to conduct an attack on the island. Therefore, Taiwan had to react each time there was a breach in the ADIZ. This in turn puts a great strain on the whole ecosystem, but we will get back to this issue later.
As mentioned earlier, the recent intensification is not something drastically new. We are observing intense flights since 2020 with a smaller or bigger air component sent out to the sea and her it gets really tricky.
ADIZ is a solution and a problem
The whole media drama was centred about the ADIZ zone that Taiwan has unilaterally declared. More about such zones can be read in a recent US Naval War College paper. It’s suffice to say, that such a zone can be as big or as small as a nation wants. For instance Taiwan has declared that its zone reaches quite far into mainland China. Therefore, if a jet starts from a Chinese base, this can potentially sound the alarms on Taiwan.
This approach is sound and understandable. Taiwan, due to the close proximity of its main foe, wants to gain as much time as needed to react. A broad ADIZ allows launching a counter strike package of its own jets and put the whole military on red alert if and when the time comes.
That being said, China can and should do what it wants on its own territory, no matter how big the ADIZ drawn by Taiwan might be. It can also do what it wants in international airspace. This is the right of a sovereign country, but clearly we can see that nothing is black or white here. Therefore, we are entering the grey zone.
Why China is doing all of this?
Obviously China knows the size of Taiwan ADIZ zone, and it breaches it on purpose. Such actions allow the Chinese military to test the readiness of Taiwan, learn their procedures and reaction times, and so on.
It also puts an enormous pressure on the Taiwanese defence budget. Each time there is a breach it has to be verified as there is no certainty that this one won’t be a start of something bigger.
The sirens are started, pilots get ready and aircraft are launched in the air to check the situation. The equipment is used in a quick pace, much quicker than during normal usage. A lot of jet fuel is also burned and so on. We also have to take into account the human factor. Starting to counter such sorties puts pressure on the pilots and the whole command structure, which in the long run can lead to mishaps or even misjudgments with tragical consequences.
Beijing slick plan and one China policy
Experts on China matters are confident that war is the last resort in China mentality. Starting a war means that you have basically lost, as all other options were not executed properly and with success. Wars are also costly and can be lost. This in turn could shatter the image of a growing new hegemon.
China would like to fulfil its one China dream without starting a conflict and strengthen its power thanks to Taiwan industry and population. Is it impossible? Well as with everything there are various opinions. The Taiwanese people are not unified in this matter also. There are fractions and interests pulling in both directions, also towards unification.
With time, Beijing might win more and more Taiwanese hearts and when new generations are born old sentiments often fade. Demonstrating its air and global power, China might be sending a signal to the Taiwanese people that it would be better to somehow reunite under the umbrella of the communist party.
There is also an option that Xi Jinping is losing his patience and would like to reunite the Chinese people during his cadence. This would be a bad option for Taiwan as the situation would most probably move to more decisive moves.
We should closely observe the next steps, as they might indicate which way is China planning to go. The long, slow and peaceful march to one China, or the more dynamic and possibly filed with confrontation path.
