RLI‘s forecast on vulnerability of power in Sudan following the coup failure on September 21, 2021, has been confirmed. The presence of ex-President al-Bashir in Sudan and the external influence by Egypt and the Gulf monarchies make the civil administrations in the country more volatile and fragile.
Sudan’s military seized power Monday, dissolving the transitional government hours after troops arrested the prime minister.
Tensions only rose from there, as the country fractured along old lines, with more conservative Islamists who want a military government pitted against those who toppled al-Bashir in protests. In recent days, both camps have taken to the street in demonstrations.
After the early morning arrests of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and other senior officials, thousands poured into the streets of the capital, Khartoum, and its twin city of Omdurman. They blocked streets and set fire to tires as security forces used tear gas to disperse them.
Among those detained Monday were five senior government figures who include Industry Minister Ibrahim al-Sheikh, Information Minister Hamza Baloul, and Mohammed al-Fiky Suliman, a member of the Sovereign Council, as well as Faisal Mohammed Saleh, a media adviser to Hamdok. Ayman Khalid, governor of the state containing the capital, was also arrested, according to the official Facebook page of his office.
Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, who has served as the chairman of Sudan’s Transitional Sovereign Council (TSC) since 12 April 2019 and is commander-in-chief of the armed forces, took centre stage, declaring a state of emergency and dissolving the government. Fattah al-Burhan was one of three Sudanese military figures to tell Omar al-Bashir that it was time to bring to a close his three decades in power. A veteran soldier, Burhan had long been one of Bashir’s reliable lieutenants – both literally and politically.
Burhan studied in a Sudanese army college, then later in Jordan and at the Egyptian military academy in Cairo, where fellow alumni included future Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Burhan and Sisi are longstanding friends, though the Sudanese general has lifelong affiliations with the kinds of Islamist movements that Sisi has outlawed. His first international trip after becoming Sudan’s de facto head of state was to Egypt in May 2019. From there he went on to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia.That explains his policy priorities and the influence by those countries on Sudan under the Burhan regime.
Burhan obviously acted in coordination with warlord Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo (Hemeti) who was the head of Rapid Support Forces.
Both generals had worries the ex-president might be brought to the ICC, as that would have raised questions about war crimes committed in Darfur civil war as they commanded the Sudanese Forces.
Burhan and Hemeti are both allies and rivals. Hemeti serves as vice president of the transitional military council, but his family and the RSF benefit enormously from their control of gold mines in Darfur, as well as from the patronage of the UAE and Saudi Arabia. They come under threat from Sudan’s civilian-led government and it is thought that this is partly why Burhan and Hemeti have moved to a coup. Hemeti projects himself as a leader abroad, so the disputes between them are likely to be ahead.
Sudan is in a tight corner, as significant human rights violations by the coup plotters might lead to the international isolation for the Burhan-Hemeti regime. The military junta, therefore, will have to seek external support from Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or China if it finds common ground with Khartoum.
The takeover comes more than two years after protesters forced the ouster of longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir and just weeks before the military was supposed to hand the leadership of the council that runs the country over to civilians.
It also coincided with the visit of the U.S. special envoy to the country.
Burhan said quarrels among political factions prompted the military to intervene.
The generals might not stick to the plan to hand leadership of the body to a civilian sometime in November. Theysaid the military would appoint a technocratic government to lead the country to elections, set for July 2023.
In recent weeks, the military has been emboldened in the dispute with civilian leaders by the support of tribal protesters, who blocked the country’s main Red Sea port for weeks. Two the most senior military officials, Burhan and his deputy Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, also have close ties with Egypt and the wealthy Gulf nations of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The decision-making by al-Burhan was strongly influenced by the general context of the Saudi, UAE and Egyptian leaders being afraid of democratic movements.
The Communist Party called on workers to protest what it described as a “full military coup” orchestrated by Burhan.
With disaffection being ginned up and attempts to bring people out onto the streets, China is the main opponent for the coup plotters, we believe. Beijing is pointedly strengthening its hand in Sudan. China supplies Sudan with technologies for oil production and pipelining, as it buys relatively large local oil volume.
