Northern Macedonia: what happens now?
Shortly after the results of the second round of local elections in northern Macedonia, Zoran Zaev said he was resigning from his post as prime minister of northern Macedonia and as leader of the Social Democrats. His center-left party, LDSM, lost the Municipality of Skopje, the capital, and several other important cities to the right-wing VMRO-DPMNE.
“I take responsibility for the election results. “I am resigning both as prime minister and as chairman of the Social Democrats,” Zaev told a news conference in Skopje on the evening of October 31.
Legally, this means that the entire Zaev government cabinet has now resigned, but will continue to perform its duties until the Head of State, Stevo Pendarovski, entrusts the mandate to another candidate, who must have the support of a majority of at least 61 deputies in parliament.
Zoran Zaev became prime minister in mid-2017, following a protracted political crisis, which ended with the ouster of former VMRO-DPMNE leader and Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski, who has since fled to Hungary.
Under Zoran Zaev’s leadership, a historic name deal was reached with neighboring Greece, unlocking the country’s stalled Euro-Atlantic integration. In 2020, Northern Macedonia became a member of NATO. But the blockade by Bulgaria on a bilateral history dispute meant the country could not start EU accession talks.
In August 2021, Zoran Zaev, together with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, would sign a tripartite economic agreement called the Open Balkans Initiative. The idea is to form a common market within the Balkans, formerly known as the Mini-Schengen area.
Read also: Balkans: Open Border to Avoid a Bloodbath
There is no doubt that Zaev’s resignation puts the country in a totally uncertain situation for the future. Consequently two questions arise: what happened to Zaev’s party and why did Zaev resign?
How does North Macedonia appear after the second round of elections?
The LDSM has lost almost all municipalities, including the Municipality of Skopje (the country’s capital and the main city), the municipalities of Kumanovo, Bitola and Ohrid. Given the importance of these cities, this is a huge loss for LDSM and so the PM , Zoran Zaev. In total, LDSM is losing with over 50 thousand votes.
And this makes the defeat and the choice of the Macedonians evident and real. What can be said is that Zaev is paying tribute to his policies. The agreement with Greece and the concessions on some of Bulgaria’s demands are not supported by the nationalist circles of the Macedonians themselves. Perhaps it could have justified himself to some extent, if the European Union had made possible the opening of negotiations in the EU. The outcome of NATO membership and the opening of negotiations would have been a reason to swallow Zaev’s omissions.
On the other hand, the Albanian front is fragmented and not as clear as the Macedonian one. The Democratic Union for Integration with more than 100 thousand votes won remains the leading Albanian party compared to the bloc of Albanian opposition parties that won close to 50 thousand votes. But it lost Tetovo (the main Albanian city) and Gostivar.
Was the reason for the losses in the local elections of LDSM the real reason for the resignation of Zoran Zaev?
Of course this has been the obvious reason, but behind his action one can go further. Although Zaev is not known for his political charisma, it cannot be said that he does not know how to manage political relations using the right scales.
The weakness of the European Union in managing the situation with Bulgaria and the ambiguity of a solid will to open negotiations for Northern Macedonia and Albania could be a push. Zaev leaves the ball in front of a possible de-stabilization. So, in this way, he avoids a similar path in the Bulgarian issue as he did with Greece.
VMRO party, if it passes into government, will pragmatically not make a comeback with Greece, otherwise it would remain isolated. But its harshness on the Bulgarian issue will complicate the process and the EU policies in the region themselves.
The energy crisis we are facing will have its consequences in Northern Macedonia as well. To maintain the price of electricity, it needs at least 3 billion euros, and without a doubt there will be great difficulties: rising prices, lack of energy, etc.
If LDSM stays in government after the resignation of Zaev, it means that there will be more support for the government in face of these problems. Otherwise LDSM will be in opposition and there will be an increase in the electorate most likely.
But will VMRO manage to turn the situation in its favor?
To form a new government it must have the support of at least 61 deputies. VMRO itself has 44 and its ally, the left-wing Levica party has two. This is probably one of the reasons why VMRO in this election has softened its nationalist and anti-Albanian rhetoric. It would need the votes of the Albanian deputies. The Alliance for Albanians has eight deputies, Alternativa four, Lëvizja Besa after the victory in Tetovo remains with three and the Albanian Democratic Party has one deputy.
In this general context where the confusion is great, the influence of the EU and US factor will be significant. It is basically not in the country’s interest for a new government made up of VMRO and potential allies. And it is not in the EU’s interest to further complicate further relations with Bulgaria in a troubled region.
