Scenarios of destabilization in BaH and possible reaction of the EU

Scenarios of destabilization in BaH and possible reaction of the EU

A mural of war criminal Ratko Mladic, convicted of committing war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide, by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, has been drawn in downtown Belgrade, as a symbol of support from Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. In fact, the Serbian state has historically considered the generals who committed genocide as its heroes, by decorating them. This time police forces have been deployed to protect Mladic’s mural, from human rights activists who wanted to wipe out the mural and threw eggs in its direction, as a sign of protest. For this action, some of the activists were arrested. The Minister of Internal Affairs of Serbia, Aleksander Vulin, also physically defended Mladic’s photograph. In the best case, those who made the mural of a war criminal should be arrested, and not the citizens who oppose such a thing.

The action to protect the figure of the man who committed genocide, by Vucic, comes at a time when BaH is facing the biggest existential threat since the post-war period. Vuicic’s move to portray the figure of a man who committed genocide, comes at a time when BaH is facing the biggest existential threat since the post-war period. There is clear sign of support for the initiative of the Serbian member of tripartite presidency in BaH, Milorad Dodik, for the separation of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Political crisis in BiH began in late July, when former High Representative, Valentin Inzko who passed a law banning the denial of genocide and other war crimes in Bosnia. Since then, the legislatures of Republika Srpska, as a sign of dissatisfaction, have boycotted the work of state institutions. The crisis deepened when Dodik sought military support from Russia and Serbia to achieve his goal of secession, even though war, which would lead to the dissolution of BaH.

Dodik’s threats for war, have alarmed the international community, which has recently intensified its engagement throughout the Western Balkans. Of course, no one wants the 90s history to be repeated in the Balkans, especially people who have suffered the consequences. According to a report prepared for the UN by the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt, the situation seems quite serious. He warned UN that the Serbian separatist’s threats could soon turn into a serious conflict. 

If this happens and will not be prevented by international community, the risk of conflict would increase in the region as well. Serbia would immediately threaten Kosovo, and this is one of the reasons why Vucic supports Dodik for secession of Republika Srpska from BaH. Their common goal is to implement the concept of “serbian world” a long-standing idea of The Serbian Orthodox Church, which is also trying to destabilize Montenegro through religious divisions. 

The US Deputy Assistant of State Secretary, Gabriel Escobar told Congress last week that the US is working with the EU to “ensure that there are consequences for any illegal or destabilizing action” in Bosnia. But what can the EU do in case of an armed conflict in Bosnia? In addition to pressure for progress in the area of ​​co-operation on BiH electoral reform, which is essential for political stability, preventing corruption which is an essential factor in making progress towards the EU. Increased EU-NATO-US co-operation would avoid Russian influence and Serbia’s continued toxic incitement to produce conflict. Serbia should no longer be treated by EU as a co-operative ally for stability in the Balkans, because all the premises show the opposite. 

The mandate of EUFOR (with 700 troops currently) and the NATO office in Sarajevo was recently renewed in the UN Security Council. The possibility of increasing military troop’s presence in BaH needs to be considered by EU and NATO. Srebrenica genocide, in presence of international community, should have been a ‘lesson learned’ for the EU and NATO, if the country is threatened by military conflict. Bosnia does not need another ‘safe area’ from the United Nations. More than two decades after what happened in Srebrenica, hundreds of Bosniak families are still searching for missing people, as a large number of victims were thrown into mass graves. At a time when NATO determination is being tested by Russia through Vucic and Dodik, coordinated EU and NATO must act now, thus that tensions do not spread further in Western Balkans.