Escobar and Lajcak visit amid fears of destabilisation in the Western Balkans

The US envoy for Western Balkans, Gabriel Escobar, and EU diplomat Miroslav Lajcak recently have made joint visit to Kosovo and Serbia. This signals a furthered meeting in a near future, to continue the dialogue between two countries. Accelerating the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia is much needed at this time, as the last meeting in July last year between Kurti and Vucic had no result. 

2022 seems to be an eventful year for the diplomacy engaged in the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, with the aim of mutual recognition. The need to accelerate dialogue seems clear to guarantee stability in Western Balkans, meanwhile the US support is the key to achieving this goal. Whereas facilitating dialogue by the EU is not that it has had any good results in the past. The US State Secretary Antony Blinken’s letter sent to Kosovo Prime minister Albin Kurti in early January, clearly states that the lack of a solution to Kosovo-Serbia relations remains an obstacle to Kosovo’s Euro-Atlantic integration and the region. The U.S. administration expectations seem to be intended that in a next meeting, mutual recognition will be the dialogue main topic, among other things. It is not known yet whether the establishment of Serbian Municipalities Association with executive powers will be among the “other topics” of dialogue continuation. This is a Belgrade request, but so far, official Pristina has categorically rejected such a possibility.

The joint visit of Escobar and Lajcak shows the unity of the US and the EU for the geostrategic policy not only towards Kosovo and Serbia but also for the future of the Western Balkans. Pushing forward the dialogue process by international community, between Kosovo and Serbia is very important at this stage to avoid destabilization of the region. At a time when situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina is still tense, on the other side protests in Montenegro are not stopping. Montenegro government is facing problems and and is expected to disintegrate due to the no confidence motion against Prime Minister Zdravko Krivokapic government. Montenegro even though it is a NATO member country, the future of this country is not secure due to political instability.

While Kosovo is a country surrounded by NATO member states, there is no time to waste because it risks to be transformed in a country like Montenegro. Kosovo must be focused on its priorities, such as the dialogue with Serbia, the activation of foreign policy to lobby for new recognitions. Although the EU is considered to have been unfair to the conditions for visa liberalization in relation to Kosovo, the latter should not give up on recognition by international organizations and should develop a proactive policy in this regard. Government priorities would need to be reviewed in order to advance Kosovo’s position internationally. 

At a time when international attention is focused on the possible Ukraine invasion by Russia, the US and the EU find time to re-actualize the issue of dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, fearing that non-Western actors at this stage may use such a moment to produce crises in the Western Balkans. In this case, Kosovo should use the historic opportunity in dialogue with Serbia, as President Joe Biden is supporter of Kosovo, he knows well the situation in the Balkans, especially Kosovo’s relationship with Serbia. The US is quite clear in their intention that the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia is of an urgent nature and should result in mutual recognition, while the EU remains to clarify its position in relation to Serbia, because it is clear that Serbia does not have any pressure from the EU to push things towards the recognition of Kosovo. 

While the establishment of Serbian Municipalities Association with executive powers, remains a challenge which has stagnated the dialogue process, it should be negotiated by both parties, but how this will be negotiated remains to be seen in the future. Kosovo actually has a good opportunity to create this association without executive powers, referring to the decision of the Kosovo Constitutional Court in 2015. Otherwise, the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia started in 2011 with the mediation of the EU, while the last round of dialogue between Prime Minister Kurti and President Vucic took place in July 2021 without any concrete results.