Analytics on Russia isolation following invasion of Ukraine

Analytics on Russia isolation following invasion of Ukraine

February 24, 2022, the Russian Federation started a large-scale military invasion of Ukraine by attacking northern, southern and eastern borders of the country and launching missiles on civil infrastructure and civilians in Kyiv and other cities. The main target of the invasion is to change Kyiv government in favor of the Kremlin and make pressure on Kyiv to turn back from NATO. 

By these actions Russia violated para. 4 of Art. 2 of the UN Charter, which set the obligation of states to refrain in international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity and independence of any state. It also violated customary and treaty norms of international humanitarian law.

In response to the aggressive attack by the Russian Federation Ukraine lawfully applied Art. 51 of the UN Charter allowing the use of force in the exercise of the right to individual or collective self-defense.

To protect its statehood, Ukraine has called on the world for support to stop Russia’s military invasion and bring it to justice. Diplomatic channels, international judicial institutions, international organizations, economic and personal sanctions have been used for this purpose.

February 23, 2022, the United States sanctioned the Nord Stream-2 operator in response to Russia’s recognition of the “independence” of terrorist-controlled LPR/DPR territories.

February 26, 2022, personal sanctions were imposed on Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and members of the Russian National Security Council. The same day Ukraine filed a lawsuit with the International Court of Justice against the Russian Federation for violating the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, and added a request for precautionary measures to end the war in Ukraine. The Genocide Convention is one of the most important international treaties developed in response to the horrors of the World War II. Ukraine requested the Court to hold an emergency hearing and order Russia to cease hostilities and invasion of Ukraine immediately.

February 28, 2022, the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court requested that the Pre-Trial Chamber investigate crimes in Ukraine related with the events unfolding in the country. Ukraine is not a party to the Rome Statute of the Court, but has recognized its jurisdiction over the entire territory of Ukraine without an end date by submitting two declarations. He thinks that there are good grounds to believe that both probable war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed in Ukraine since 2013. Given the escalation of the conflict in recent days, the ICC Prosecutor intends to expand the investigation to cover any new alleged crimes under the jurisdiction of the Prosecutor’s Office and committed by any party to the conflict in any part of Ukraine. March 3, 2022, 39 countries have applied to the ICC Prosecutor’s Office regarding the situation in Ukraine. This is an unprecedented appeal that speeds up the process and the immediate investigation of crimes against humanity, war crimes and crimes of aggression without consideration by the Pre-Trial Chamber.

February 28, 2022, Ukraine applied to the European Court of Human Rights for preliminary measures in accordance with Rule 39, according to which the Court may issue a binding order to any State party to the European Convention on Human Rights at the time of consideration of the merits of the complaint. March 1, 2022the European Court of Human Rights issued a ruling ordering the Russian Federation to stop attacks and bombings of civilian objects in Ukraine. The ECHR emphasizes that such actions by the Russian Federation pose a real threat of violating Articles 2, 3 and 8 of the Convention.

March 1, 2022, the President of the International Court of Justice sent an urgent notification to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation with a copy to the Government of Ukraine in the case of genocide charges under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of Genocide (Ukraine v. Russia). The statement said Russia should act in such a way as to allow any order that the Court may issue requesting interim measures.

Authoritative international organizations such as the United Nations and the Council of Europe also reacted to Russia’s aggressive actions on the territory of Ukraine. March 2, 2022, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution ‘Aggression against Ukraine’ that condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and demanded that Russia immediately withdraw troops from Ukrainian territory. 141 states supported the resolution, 5 voted against (Russia, Belarus, Syria, North Korea, Eritrea), 35 states abstained (including China, India, South Africa, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, Cuba, CAR). February 25, 2022, the Council of Europe suspended Russia’s membership in the Committee of Ministers and the PACE.

March 2, 2022, the representative of Ukraine to international organizations in Vienna Yevhen Tsymbalyuk during a speech at a meeting of International Atomic Energy Agency leaders demanding decisive measures to prevent Russian troops in the thirty-kilometer zone around Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, called for pressure on Russia to immediately recorded a sevenfold increase in radiation and the return of the Ukrainian side of control over all nuclear facilities, as well as to impose sanctions on nuclear technology in Russia.

Russia violated the basic principles and norms of international law enshrined in the UN Charter, the Declaration of Principles of International Law, the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, which Russia itself undertook.

As for international judicial institutions, three of them are currently involved: the International Court of Justice, the International Criminal Court and the European Court of Human Rights.

All the political and legal sanctions posed by the international community lead to a total economic isolation of Russia and its citizens. Empirical experience of the conflict with Russia over eight years since the annexation of Crimea and parts of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts since 2014 shows that the “political concerns” of the European Union and the United States have no bearing on Russia. Economic isolation has become an effective and tangible tool for influencing Russian as a state at the institutional level, as well as business and citizens.

JPMorgan analysts have already warned that Russia may be unable to pay its foreign debts. Even a single default on external payments can cause a chain reaction. According to Bloomberg, March 2, 2022, Russian companies whose shares are traded on the London Stock Exchange have already lost $570 billion.

An important tool of pressure on the aggressor is also economic sanctions, which strike a blow to Russia’s financial stability. March 2, 2022, the EU disconnects 7 Russian banks from SWIFT. Banks have 10 days to close SWIFT transactions. These are the following Russian banks: VTB, “Russia”, “Otkrytie”, “Novikombank”, “Promsvyazbank”, “Sovkombank” and VEB.RF. However, Sberbank, Russia’s largest creditor, and Gazprombank have not yet been included in the list, as they are the main payment channels for Russian oil and gas. Citizens and companies are prohibited from handing over euro banknotes to Russia. In addition, European legal entities and individuals are prohibited from participating in any future projects of the Direct Investment Fund, which have previously been sanctioned by Britain and the United States. The US government has banned Sberbank, which accounts for about 30% of Russia’s banking business, and its subsidiaries from operating through the United States.

Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said that more than 100 of the world’s giant companies have already completely or partially stopped working in Russia or plan to make such a decision. This list includes: DHL Global Mail Service; Maersk’s largest freight company; technology giants – Apple, Google, Twitter, Lenovo, Hewlett-Packard, Spotify, Dropbox; cars – Tesla, BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, Toyota, Ford, Chevrolet, Audi; financial giants – Visa, Mastercard, PayPal; clothes – Nike, Adidas; Irish leasing companies – AerCap, SMBC Aviation Capital, Avalon; Paramount, Disney, Sony Pictures and Warner Bros. LEGO, Cannes Film Festival. World chipmakers are suspending supplies to Russia. The companies began to suspend supplies of high-tech products after the United States, Britain, Japan and other countries imposed sanctions on Russia.

March 2, 2022, the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine sent official letters to the 11 largest organizations in the world in the field of infrastructure with a request to take the necessary measures to close the aggressor country aviation space, access to seaports and exclude Russia from the International Bridge, Tunnel and Turnpike Association (IBTTA), the International Airport Council (ACI), the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the International Union of Railways (UIC), the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the British Ministry of Transport, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE); Danube Commission, International Air Transport Association (IATA), US Federal Aviation Administration, International Transport Forum (ITF).

Unprecedented in the history of international law, Russia’s airspace has been completely closed. March 2, 202237 countries have shut the sky for Russian aircraft (aircraft with Russian registration; Russian-controlled aircraft; private jets of Russian oligarchs). Albania, the United Kingdom, Iceland, Canada, Norway, Moldova, northern Macedonia and the United States have recently joined the list of the countries that have closed their skies. It is worth noting that even Switzerland has decided not to stay neutral and close the airspace to Russia too. 

In addition, the supply of aircraft and spare parts to Russia is banned. Airbus airliners – 322 aircraft – provided 40% of passenger traffic in Russia. The sanctions imposed actually deprive carriers of the opportunity to operate this fleet. Russia has also been banned from buying aircraft, even on lease. The world’s largest aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing have cut off Russian airlines from access to documentation.