Karabakh hostilities may be reborn. Russia’s attempts to transport troops from Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia to Ukraine, where the Russians suffer huge losses, will signal return to hostilities in the region.
It is confirmed by firing on Azerbaijan army positions in the direction of Aghdam region’s Chukhurmehle, Gurdlar, Khidirli, Garadaghli, and Gasimli settlements on March,10.
The Russian contingent in Karabakh consists of 1,960 military personnel, 90 armored personnel carriers and 380 vehicles.
Moscow transports one battalion-tactical group numbering around 500 people from Gyumry 102nd mil base. The unit has been formed and is waiting for a command to be sent. However, the Kremlin knows that they cannot deploy numerous groups because there are only 3 battalions at the base, one of which guards the border with Karabakh (Sisiyan and Goris), and the second one is deployed at the base and is in reserve.
After the war the Armenian and Karabakh troops have low morale, but due to their ethno-cultural characteristics one can predict how fast they can be involved in any provocation. Since their deployment Russian peacekeepers with the full support of General Andrei Volkov, the commander of the Russian contingent, take the side of Karabakh and turn a blind eye to the regular ceasefire violations. The ceasefire regime violations in Nagorno-Karabakh has been recorded by the parties since early March this year.
Thus, after the Russian contingent withdrawal from the region, Baku will have the opportunity to take a total control over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh within 1-1.5 weeks and thereby restore the territorial integrity of the state.
The troops of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh have not recovered from the defeat in the 2020 war and are unlikely to be capable of resisting the armed forces of Azerbaijan, who received combat training and experience in the 2020 campaign.
In case of more volunteers are sent to fight in Ukraine at the request of Moscow, Armenia may lose even more controlled territories in future.
