Hungarian election: prospect for ongoing democracy crisis, as Putin and Orban collude on aggression against Ukraine

Preliminary results show Fidesz-KDNP alliance winning not less than 68% votes, with 99% ballots counted. The opposition alliance led by Peter Marki-Zay fell far behind with 34,9% votes.

Fidesz-KDNP is due to get 135 seats in parliament, therefore, which is a two-thirds majority. The Everybody’s Hungary opposition movement leader Peter Marki-Zay claimed well-functioning propaganda machine with media dominance by the ruling party made that possible, as he recognized Orban’s victory.

The opposition united various parties, from the far-right Jobbik, more radical than Fidesz, to the left-wing Democratic Coalition. Their election campaign promised to fight corruption and get closer to Europe, while Russian media said the Hungarian election was a choice between the EU and Russia.

With different views on a series of issues, those parties had to unite, as the latest amendments to the election law were adopted: they had to nominate not less than 71 candidates in 14 single-member constituencies – which is just impossible for small parties – to take part in the vote.

If Fidesz confirms the victory, that will bolster the party’s position and that of its Christian Democrat ally, with a total of 49.27% votes won in 2018 elections.

The far-right Our Homeland movement, mainly formed by nationalist ex-Jobbik members who then moved into a broader political mainstream, entered parliament with 6.45% votes. It will become Fidesz’s ally in parliament. Our Homeland has gained support during the pandemic, as it was the only party to oppose vaccination.

The voter turnout was 68.7%, close to the record four years ago. That owes to mobilized Orban’s supporters and the opposition’s wish to change his 12-year rule.

Hungarian opposition believes Fidesz obtained the vast majority because of violated democratic standards and freedom of speech.

A large number of election ballots for the upcoming Hungarian elections were found a few days before at a landfill, near the town of Târgu Mureș. These ballots have already been filled by the citizens who live in neighboring countries and vote by mail. It is visible the votes were for the opposition parties. 

With EU unanimously condemning Russian invasion of Ukraine and war crimes committed by Russians there, Orban said he did not support the sanctions against Moscow. At EU Council meetings, however, the Hungarians did not oppose the restrictions on Russian politicians and economy. But Budapest did not allow any military equipment moved to Ukraine through Hungary and keeps on pushing for benefits of close ties with Russia, to secure gas supplies.

Orban convinced his voters that opposition alliance of Peter Marki-Zay who promised to get along with the EU, could embroil Hungary into NATO-led military conflict, despite NATO’s initial pledge not to exacerbate confrontation with Russia.

The pro-government camp, therefore, circulated a manipulative narrative that peace (in Ukraine’s war) is an issue that separates one half of the country from the other. With Fidesz’s election narratives on the risks of Hungary involvement in Ukraine war, there are reasons to believe that Orban is reluctant to help Ukraine over his territorial claims to Ukraine’s west.

As Russia invaded Ukraine, Moscow signaled to Orban that Budapest would get Ukrainian Transcarpathia, after the military operation in Ukraine is successfully completed, some diplomatic sources claim. That card, speaking about the rights of ethnic Hungarians, was often played by the Orban government to block Ukraine from integrating into NATO. Russia was going to to hold a referendum in Transcarpathia, like in Crimea in 2014, that would allow Hungary to annex this territory, as it is a part of its interest. Moscow expected to seize Ukraine before March 1, then hold the referendum before the elections in Hungary are over, thus adding to Orban’s chances to win. That is why Budapest deployed troops at the Ukrainian border.

That deal with Moscow was decisive for Budapest not just to refuse to provide weapon for Ukraine, but also to ban the weapon move through Hungary for the Ukrainian army. In March, Russian secret agencies posted lots of fakes saying that people in Transcarpathia were planning to hold a referendum on independence.

Orban focused his election campaign on the narrative that the opposition’s victory would lead to weapons supply to Ukraine, that would stop Russian energy import for the Hungarian energy OMV.

It is confirmed that Moscow staged an operation to misinform the Hungarian leaders on Ukraine’s interference in the parliamentary election in Hungary. That operation was successful, as Orban has listed President Zelensky among his opponents.