Provocative shelling of Transnistria’s Ministry of State Security speaks about upcoming escalation in Moldova with a view to overthrow the Sandu democratic regime and reignite the conflict between Chisinau and Tiraspol.
A series of explosions shook the Ministry of State Security in unrecognized Transnistria on April 25. Some RPG-18 and RPG-27 rocket-propelled anti-tank grenade tubes were found near the building. RPG-27 is used only by the armies of Russia, Jordan, Gabon, and Transnistria. Russia or Transnistria might be involved in the shelling, therefore. As power structures of Transnistria and Moscow are close, the events in Tiraspol are to lay ground for the Kremlin’s operation in Moldova, scheduled for the first 10 days of May in the form of anti-government protests.
The ban on Russian symbols, such as the ribbon of Saint George, and the letters Z and V, which symbolize support for Russian aggression against Ukraine, is expected to be a formal reason for the protest. Moldova’s capital Chisinau, the city of Bălți, and Gagauzia in the north, where the Kremlin fuels separatist sentiments, are likely to be the centers for the protest. The protests there will be supported by Renato Usatîi, pro-Russian party leader.
The operation in Moldova is prepared by Major General Dmitry Milyutin, the 5th FSB Service Operational Information Department Deputy Head, Colonel Valery Solokha, the FSB Operational Information Department 11th Section head, and Igor Chaika, the unofficial handler of Moldova at President’s Administration. The youngest son of the Prosecutor General Yury Chaika had a business in waste management together with Alexander Dodon, the brother of Moldova’s ex-president. Unconfirmed reports suggest Alexei Yefremov, Yury Gudilin, and Maxim Gromov, who work for the FSB Operative Information Department 11th section, are involved in the operation.
The pro-Russian party leader Renato Usatîi, supervised by the GRU in opposition to the FSB projects in Moldova, claimed in 2020 the same people – Major General Dmitry Milyutin, the 5th Service Department deputy head, Valery Solokha, the ‘Moldova department’ acting head (he worked under cover of adviser Konstantin Zatulin as Russia’sparliament committee staff deputy head) and captain Maxim Gromov – persecuted him.
One of the factors that indicates the scenario to destabilize Moldova is highly possible is the fact that Chisinau’s mayor Ion Ceban (the Euro-Russian Party of Socialists), who has ties to Russian intelligence and is supervised by Colonel Grigory Velikikh from FSB Operational Information Department secondees, was given a task to leave Moldova and go to Bulgaria, as riots and armed protests in the country threatened his life. Grigory Velikikh works under cover as Roscongress Foundation Deputy Director. When Ion Ceban leaves the country that would be a key indicator for the operation to start.
After Russia failed operation in Ukraine, the 5th FSB Service lost its face, and its head, General Beseda, was arrested and accused of misappropriation of funds allocated to set up Russia-friendly front in Ukraine. The 5th Service of FSB, therefore, considers the planned operation in Moldova as an opportunity to be rehabilitated and save budget funds, with mid-level and top officers maintaining their positions. The 5th FSB Service believes Ceban is the most promising pro-Russian policymaker in Moldova and expects to use him as the country’s leader, after West-friendly regime of Sandu is overthrown.
Unconfirmed reports suggest Russian sabotage groups of the Special Forces Brigade of Transnistria’s Interior Ministry, and some special forces groups of Russia’s FSB have already entered Moldova as tourists. A group of the Russian deployment in Transnistria and 4 brigades of so-called Transnistrian army are likely to take part in the operation as well. Protest groups will be armed with heavy weapons from warehouses in the village of Cobasna.
Moscow expects that standoff in Moldova will not just roil the region and overhaul the West-friendly leaders, but make Tiraspol give Russia military assistance in the war with Ukraine, as Russia has integrated Tiraspol’s troops into its Western Military District for not less than the last 8 years.
GRU’s clandestine network in Tiraspol is operated by 74th Intelligence Center of Western mil district Intel Headquarter who can be involved in Russian force op in Transnistria:
- Vitaly Nyagu, 1976, code name “Commerce” (former minister of internal affiars);
- Ihor Nebiygolova, code name “Shiftain” (a head of Cossack army);
- Liudmila Koval, 1964, code name “Trainer” ( editor of the “Trade Union news” newspaper);
- Vladimir Sandutsa, 1954, code name “Politician” (Russian RIA-Novosti correspondent);
- Sergey Gerasutenko, 1960, code name “Faust” (a head of General Stuf, first deputy minister of defence Transnisria);
- Ihor Buga, 1964, code name “Lemur” (member of parliament of Transnistria);
- Vladimir Buchka, 1957, code name “Gorzher” (member of parliament of Transnistria);
- Nikolay Prodan, code name “The Fair” (presidium member of Transnistrian law enforcement trade union).
