Presidential election in Somalia neither offers potential for substantial changes in the country, nor reduces corruption.
After three rounds of voting by 328 MPs and senators, former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud emerged victorious in the final round with 214 votes, more than enough to defeat incumbent Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmaajo.
Mohamud’s election ended a long-delayed electoral process that had raised political tensions — and heightened insecurity concerns — after President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed’s mandate expired in February 2021 without a successor in place.
Critics and opposition figures accused President Mohamed of trying to keep power at all costs, exerting pressure on the electoral commission, installing state leaders who would help sway the election and trying to fill Parliament with supporters using the intelligence agency.
Tribal clans in Somalia make the government follow their interests, not those of all people. The tribes that opposed the previous government will benefit from change of power, with resources reallocated.
That eliminates any prospect for national priorities and facilitates decentralization, as central government gives way to the interests of the biggest clans, with less powerful groups seeking to protect their interests by relying on armed groups, particularly Al Shabab, acting as arbitrator or civil court.
Some Somalis have turned to the Shabab for services that would ideally be delivered by a functioning state. Many in Mogadishu regularly travel to areas dozens of miles north of the city to get their cases heard at Shabab-operated mobile courts.
In the absence of central government authority, the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) took control over much of south and central Somalia.
With the government unable to provide security, people have to pay taxes to the Shabab, for providing security and security guarantees.
Hassan Sheikh Mohamud failed to reduce corruption, neither did he reform or consolidate the state, as he last served as president in 2012-2017. He also failed to address the challenges coming from Al Shabab terrorists,associated with Al Qaeda, who control large areas in the south and centre. The group maintains ties with some clans.
Thus, after Somalia’s parliament elected Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as the country’s tenth president, the Somalian President-elect will inherit a host of challenges, many of them long standing:
- a fragile economy with high levels of poverty and inequality,
- a youth bulge,
- corruption,
- high unemployment,
- significant infrastructure gaps,
- the trust deficit between Mogadishu and regional capitals.
Hassan Sheikh Mohamud will face a litany of immediate problem to tackle from his first day in office. This year’s elections were held amidst the worst drought in 40 years. The UN has warned that six million Somalis – or 40 percent of the population – are now facing extreme hunger levels.
On the security front, Al Shabab, an Al Qaeda-linked militant insurgency group waging a deadly war against Somalia’s internationally-backed government for over a decade, has proved to be a resilient guerilla force with influence over large swaths of land in the south and central Somalia. The group is able to extract resources, either livestock or cash – from the local population and use the regions as a base to execute attacks against the Somali government and African Union forces – seemingly at will.
Some Somalian politicians call this election cycle “the worst” in Somalia’s history because of corruption. According to Larry E. André Jr., the U.S. ambassador to Somalia, the majority of the parliamentary seats had been selected by regional leaders, “sold” or “auctioned.”
Authorities had planned a direct election this time but, instead, the federal government and states agreed on another “indirect election via lawmakers elected by community leaders — delegates of powerful clans — in each member state.
Because of the indirect nature of the presidential vote, candidates did not campaign in the streets. Instead, they met with lawmakers and clan elders in luxury hotels and compounds guarded by soldiers. Some aspirants put up election billboards, promising good governance, justice and peace, but fell in corruption.
Somalia’s long-delayed presidential vote has set a record in attracting 39 contenders. This reflects an increase compared to previous years. In 2012 there were 25 candidates for the top seat and at the 2017 elections there were 24.
Somali voters don’t exercise universal suffrage, so the country’s 329 lawmakers pick the president. Previous elections were notoriously tainted by fraud, intimidation and vote-buying.
Somali’s election of the president is usually marked by identity politics. The country has used a clan-based power-sharing model where parliamentary seats are shared among the four major clan families (Dir, Darod, Hawiye and Rahanweyn) and numerous minority clans.
This formula is also used when allocating ministerial posts and offices of state as agreement between clans. The lower house speaker post is mostly contested by Rahanweyn while upper house speaker is nominally reserved for Dir. Previous leaders occupying the two top seats in today’s Somalia (president and premier) have been drawn from either Darod or Hawiye clans. Most candidates who participated in the election are primarily from these two clans:
- Incumbent President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo: From the Darod clan. His political manifesto is centred on sustaining the “comprehensive and far-reaching reforms” that his administration embarked on in 2017. Among them is the promise to deliver universal suffrage if re-elected.
- Former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud: From the Hawiye clan. Hassan’s political manifesto is centred on repairing the fraught ties between the federal government and federal member states so that a “peaceful Somalia contribute to a peaceful world”.
- Former President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed: From the Hawiye clan. Sharif’s political manifesto is based on finalising Somalia’s protracted constitutional review process and shifting the stalemate with Al Shabaab.
- Former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khayre: From the Hawiye clan. Khayre’s political manifesto rests on correcting any mistakes he made during his tenure as prime minister and bridging Somalia’s major political divides.
- Puntland President, Said Abdullahi Deni: From the Darod clan. Deni’s political manifesto is centred on three key pledges: Strong Somali shilling, strengthening legal institutions, and securing Somalia’s national borders.
- Fawzia Yusuf Haji Adam, the sole female candidate: From the Dir clan. Her political manifesto is grounded on her vast experience as Somalia’s first female foreign minister and deputy prime minister. She’s firmly of the view women politicians can make effective changes and open the door for other women leaders.
