The Nicaraguan Congress’ authorization for entry of Russian troops, navy ships and aircraft into the country is a trick to put pressure on the United States and provoke the Caribbean-like crisis. Obviously, Moscow plans to replay the Syrian and Belarusian scenario by protecting the dictatorship in Nicaragua.
Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega announced that he would greenlight the entry of Russian troops, ships and aircraft into the country for allegedly humanitarian purposes starting July,1. He sounded this decision while giving comments to the local government media La Gaceta.
As he says personnel, ships and aircraft of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation can enter to participate in trainings and exercises, as well as humanitarian aid operations, search and rescue operations in emergency situations or natural disasters. In addition, Ortega gave military, ships and aircraft of countries-members of the Conference of the Armed Forces of Central America (Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Dominican Republic), the United States, Mexico, Venezuela and Cuba a green light to transit and station in the country. The Nicaraguan constitution permits the presence of foreign military personnel in the country. The relevant decree is signed on a regular basis. However, Russia is out of the mentioned country list. First of all, geographically it is not the part of the American region and, secondly, it is not economically integrated into the Central America.
The US is Nicaragua’s key importer and exporter. The US accounts for 59% of Nicaragua’s exports. Mexico is the second largest importer of Nicaraguan goods and services (7.83%). Smaller volumes are imported by El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica and Guatemala. Nicaragua’s main importers are the USA (25%), China (13.7%), Mexico (10.5%), Guatemala (8.47%), Honduras (7.07%), Costa Rica (6 .54%), El Salvador (4.55%), India (2.74%) and South Korea (less than 2%). The level of the Russian-Nicaraguan trade relations hardly exceed 0%; Moscow is not of economic interest to this country.
Therefore, Ortega’s decision is far from economic reasons; it is purely political step directed against Washington and in favor of the dictatorship protection. There is a possibility that the Russians will keep providing the Ortega family with personal security and protect them from any coup attempts or protest movements. In fact, the Kremlin replays the Syrian and Belarusian scenario of supporting the dictatorship in exchange for geopolitical zone of influence expansion. Ultimately, this kind of ‘support’ pushes the regimes to break fundamental democratic principles more and more, thereby, making themselves more dependent on the Kremlin. As a result, the dictatorship is protected, but the country itself loses its sovereignty, especially in foreign policy. The President of Nicaragua supported Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine.
The Russian Navy fleet does not have USNS Mercy and USNS Comfort-class ships. It means that Russia cannot participate in humanitarian aid operations in such remote regions as Nicaragua. However, deployment of warships equipped with nuclear weapons in the territorial waters of Nicaragua could replay the Caribbean crisis and put Moscow’s pressure on Washington. Such a scenario looks likely given Russia’s failure in war in Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s strong need to demonstrate its geopolitical successes to the society.
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