With Norway becoming more important for European energy security, more and more indicators reveal that Russia is preparing for acts of sabotage and subversive ops targeting the facilities of this Nordic country.
More than 10 Russians have been detained in Norway for the last month and half when using drones and taking photographs of strategic targets. Among them – a 47-year-old Andrei Yakunin, the son of the ex-CEO of the Russian Railways and Russian foreign intelligence officer Yakunin, who was arrested in Hammerfest on October 17. He asked the investigators to consider him to be a British citizen. This means that two Russian agencies – military intelligence and foreign intelligence – are competing in Norway, which is possible only if the task was set by the President of Russia himself.
It is possible that the Naryshkin’s agency believes the attack on Norway’s oil and gas facilities will make negotiations between Russia and the West possible on the Kremlin’s terms. The latest statement by Naryshkin on needed compromise with the Western may be related to that. Russian SVR is probably lobbying for a scenario of triggering the energy crisis in Europe to tap into its agents amid political actors in Western Europe and make people refuse to support Ukraine, as it repels Moscow’s aggression.
Four Russians were arrested on suspicion of illegal taking photographs of secret facilities. Two other Russianshaving drones were detained in Norway, as it was reported earlier.
Norway has increased security measures following September 26 explosion, when the Nord Stream suffered major leak off the Swedish and Danish coasts. Some unidentified drones were spotted then close to Norwegian oil and gas facilities.
Read also: Russia attacked EU energy system
The Norwegian police arrested a man, holding Russian and Israeli citizenship, at a border crossing point. Two drones were found in his car.
Another Russian was detained on Friday at the airport in Troms in northern Norway. He also had a drone with video cameras.
We believe the Russians have become more active in Norway as they are getting ready for a large-scale multiagency op targeting Norway’s energy facilities. This is indicated by the fact that the Norwegian Petroleum Safety Authority (PSA), on September 26, 2022, voiced the problem of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) spotted in the North and Norwegian Seas. The Stavanger Aftenblad says the drones can be used to attack oil offshore fields directly. RLI analysts fully share the assessment of attack targets, but we believe that drones would more likely be used to reconnoiter, plan, and coordinate attacks. The sabotage of Norwegian fields is highly possible be related to previous North Stream and North Stream 2 explosions. The North Streams op, therefore, may be part of a multiple move to trigger energy crisis, as it would be impossible to fully compensate for Russian gas supplies.
Russia might be also planning false flag attacks on Norwegian facilities.
- Future Russian targets may be correlated with the sites where unidentified drones were spotted:
- Norway’s Equinor Marine Fields on the Norwegian continental shelf.
- The Kristin field in the Norwegian Sea;
- Gina Krog oil and gas field in the North Sea;
- The Heidrun field in the Norwegian Sea
- The Ringhorne field in the North Sea.
One of them, or several facilities at once, may be attacked.
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