The processes that are being observed in the Russian president’s entourage suggest a significant upsurge of anxiety in Russia’s military-political leadership. According to our estimates, this anxiety is due to the state of Vladimir Putin’s health, uncertainty over the power transfer prospects, foreign policy situation around Russia, and failures in the ongoing war on Ukraine. The situation contributes to an increased likelihood of fundamental decisions being made with the reduction of risks of military escalation against the West.
In January 2023, RLI analysts pointed to the attempts by the head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to become an alternative to the Russian armed forces within the country and claim the post of Supreme Commander-in-Chief. His criticism and an outright smear campaign targeting defense ministry leadership and the general staff turned out to be a real threat to Russia’s military bloc.
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A number of moves, such as a “leaked” video of a Wagner Group machine gunner shooting at a photograph of the chief of the general staff Valeriy Gerasimov during routine exercises, as well as accusations of top defense officials of sabotaging ammo supplies to the battlefield, were aimed at discrediting the army leadership. In turn, Prigozhin was stripped of the opportunity to further recruit convicts in Russian prisons. This manpower replenishment channel was monopolized by the defense ministry.
Any strengthening of Prigozhin’s positions is highly likely to lead to attempts by security forces to undermine his influence. According to sources in the Kremlin, the issue of containing and weakening Prigozhin was the subject of repeated appeals by defense officials to the Russian president. Clearly, Putin is so far on Prigozhin’s side, likely exploiting him as a counterbalance to the military. However, the situation is likely to change.
Monitoring of the latest public events involving Putin indicates that the president is increasingly using doubles for such appearances.
The video of the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko indirectly suggests progression of the Russian dictator’s Parkinson’s disease and cancer. The spasmodic movements of his legs are more frequent than at the time of our last analysis of health condition.
The outcome of OSINT analysis shows that Putin has been on medications aimed to remove excessive fluid from the body, as well as painkillers that affect his mental condition. The results of the analysis covering April 2022 indicated that Putin’s health should have deteriorated critically before the end of last year.
This conclusion was based on medical technology available in Russia and the potential of the team of Putin’s personal physicians. However, temporary stabilization may suggest that Israeli specialists got involved in the treatment process at some point, providing some exclusive drugs.
It is obvious that Putin’s health has an impact on his entourage. The situation resembles of the confrontation between the Russian security forces in 2016-2019, which was due to emerging reports of the leader’s deteriorating health involving a negative outlook.
The situation among the Russian elites is similar to that around Hitler shortly before the end of WWII. Most understand the futility of continuing the fight and thus strive to save their lives and guarantee themselves a secure future with the preservation of assets. From the latest address Vladimir Putin delivered to the Federal Assembly, it is clear that he is unwilling to go with the peaceful power transfer scenario, involving his voluntary step-down. He likely realizes the inevitability of an international tribunal if this scenario is implemented, as well as the potential readiness of his immediate entourage to extradite him for trial, subject to guarantees of their own immunity. In such a situation, business elites express discontent over this uncertainty, realizing that Putin’s continued tenure as President implies continued sanctions pressure, further dependency on the Kremlin and coercion to payments to the state budget (to cover rising military spending). Reports of their attempts to seek guarantees of survival and preservation of assets is being leaked to Putin, which leads to even higher anxiety and conspiracy fears.
In such a situation, Putin’s inevitable solution may be to eliminate any rivals potentially claiming presidency.
Quite noticeable was the change in the rhetoric pursued by Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. There is a theory that, should Putin lose his presidency, he could lead the process of Chechnya’s secession from Russia, securing a future for himself in the post-Putin period.
It is expected that in the short term preparations may begin for the campaign to discred Yevgeny Prigozhin. This process will highly likely be supervised by First Deputy Head of the Administration, Alexei Gromov. It is also highly likely that the Ministry of Defense and General Staff will join the process, expecting that they may bear the main burden of responsibility for the failure of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Thus, since late 2022, the political situation in the Kremlin has seen two main shifts:
1. The Putin-Patrushev conflict – due to Patrushev’s remarks on the issues of war and mobilization being ignored and the president’s unwillingness to approve the promotion of Dmitry Patrushev, who is currently Minister of Agriculture.
2. The Putin-Kovalchuk conflict, related to the latter’s support for Yevgeny Prigozhin’s political career.
It is unlikely that these conflicts will see a rapid development, but it is expected that Putin will not forget about them, which will in turn further affect personnel decisions regarding the individuals involved.
A thorough analysis of the latest developments testifies to ongoing attempts made within Russia’s power bloc to strengthen certain agency leaders, which may suggest their anxiety of upcoming purges and reshuffle. For example, Nikolai Patrushev has been pushing for the appointment of Yevgeny Anokhin to the post of Security Council Assistant Secretary. Anokhin is a Patrushev’s long-time protégé from the FSB times. It is highly likely that certain reshuffles will come as early as in the next few weeks.
