The highly anticipated June 4, 2023 elections in Guinea Bissau give an opportunity for the country’s threatened democracy to consolidate. These elections underline the interest and wide mobilization of international and regional observers including the United Nations, the African Union and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). However, the actions of political actors in the lead up to the polls significantly challenge these expectations. Legislative elections in Guinea-Bissau are important for far-reaching reforms to prevent a relapse into political and institutional instability.
Nearly 900,000 voters of 2 million residents were eligible to cast their ballot to elect 102 legislators in Guinea-Bissau on Sunday, June 4. With this number of voters, the turnout rate in Guinea Bissau was habitually high, as the turnout rate usually exceeds 80%.
With 22 political parties registered to contest at the polls, only six are active with seats in the National Parliament.
Guinea-Bissau, which gained independence in 1974 after a bloody war against Portugal, has had 22 prime ministers and three military coups since the advent of multi-party elections in 1994. The leading party has traditionally been the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), which spearheaded the country’s liberation struggle almost six decades ago. But it is now in opposition, despite having the largest number of seats.
Since 2015, Guinea-Bissau has been in a protracted political crisis which started when the immediate past President, José Mário Vaz, who won as the PAIGC candidate in 2014, dismissed Domingos Simes Pereira, his prime minister and the party leader. During his five year term as President, Vaz worked with seven prime ministers which is a sign of the level of political instability that characterized his administration. Upon his election in 2019, President Umaru Sissoko Embalo’s administration has also been a tell tale of political tensions and instability with the high point of tensions being his dissolution of parliament in May 2022.
Breakaway blocs such as the Movement for Democratic Change (Madem-G15) mean the political landscape is more fragmented than ever, with 22 parties competing for votes.
We have a doubt that a clear majority will emerge in these elections.
A key political debate in Guinea-Bissau is whether to keep the current semi-presidential system, or to change the constitution and move to system where the president is also the head of government.
Under the current system, the largest party or coalition in parliament appoints the government, but the president has the power to dismiss it in certain circumstances, which has led to political deadlocks in the past.
President Umaro Sissoco Embalo of Madem-G15 dissolved parliament last year and has attracted criticism for appointing his own government officials to manage the affairs of the country – without parliamentary oversight and without personally being held accountable for anything along the way.
Critics of Embalo say he has cracked down on civic freedoms and curtailed the free press.
The country’s economy often hinges on the volatile price of cashew nuts, but the booming drug smuggling connecting South America with Europe has also plagued Guinea-Bissau and its political sphere for many years.
According to the leader of the African Party for Peace and Social Stability, Ulisses Monteiro, four candidates were “brutally attacked” by members of a rival party on Sunday, June 4.
Fernando Dias, leader of the opposition Party for Social Renewal, has already threatened to protest in the streets in the event of electoral fraud to “defend the democratic truth of the ballot boxes.
The latest legislative elections in the democratic history of the country took place several months after the original deadline specified by electoral law for the timeline on new elections had expired.
Guinea-Bissau’s current dillemma began with a power struggle between the President and the Parliament at the beginning of 2022.
President Embaló wanted deputies to approve his proposal for a constitutional revision, which would make the presidentalso head of government – as the majority of ECOWAS constitutions stipulate.
However, Parliament rejected the constitutional amendments proposed by the president, which has triggered yet another institutional crisis in the country.
The Presidency publicly favored a presidential system, while Parliament, at that time, advocated for a semi-presidential system. So, this dispute will certainly continue in the next legislature.
The June 4 polls are a key determinant for the tide of democracy in Guinea Bissau. President Embalo wants Guinea-Bissau to take on a presidential system, with new constitution needed. Requiring the support of three-fifths of the parliamentary deputies, this constitutional reform has been a major source of political division. The post-election balance of power will determine how feasible such reform will be.
The opposition accuses the President of assuming the role of being in charge of everything without any overt power-grab or public mandate.
The state agencies, in recent times, have been working practically without any autonomy, meaning that the separation of powers practically doesn’t exist anymore.
So, for many, the political system of Guinea-Bissau has failed.
The political-institutional crisis is almost chronic in Guinea-Bissau. Despite poverty and the worsening social crisis, politicians in this campaign have been repeating past electoral promises that are never fulfilled. The struggle for power control has hindered the country’s development.
Most of the criticism came from farmers who have been unhappy with the government raising the base price of the cashew nut, a key export and source of revenue for the people. Instability and poverty have made the country to appeal to drug traffickers who smuggle cocaine from Latin America to Europe. Timber trafficking and corruption are also rampant.
These legislative elections are not trusted, starting with the opposition parties, which have put the current leadership of the National Electoral Commission in question.
Many believe that since Embaló came to power in February 2020, fundamental freedoms and democratic structures in the country have suffered several setbacks. Embalo, a former army general, has long sought to change the constitution to give himself more powers.
This is what the international community cites as an important factor behind the country’s instability.
While the changes he intends to make are not clear, critics accuse him of seeking to consolidate power following the disputed 2019 presidential election.
For example, radio stations have suffered attacks, houses of political commentators have been vandalized, activists have brutally been beaten, bloggers have been reportedly kidnapped and tortured.
Those who dare to criticize the regime — including the opposition — fear that their own homes may be the next target.
Perhaps the biggest boon to the country is the fact that all the leaders of the major political parties are still the same people who have been at the helm of the state for decades.Parties like PAIGC, MADEM-G15, and PRS all equate absolute majority governments as the only guarantee for governing stability. However, since the advent of the first multiparty elections in 1994, Guinea-Bissau has already had three such absolute majorities in parliament – with no signs of change during those administrations. After the first absolute majority in 1994, in which the former libaration movement PAIGC won 62 seats, the country stumbled into civil war.
